Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party and Kuo Min Tang (KMT) are battling for next year’s Taiwan President Election. As the current leader of Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou takes a friendly and realistic approach towards mainland China, governments across the strait have been developing an increasingly closer relationship. And finally there was Xi-Ma Summit on November 7th.
But Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen has been maintaining the edge this year. Democratic Progressive Party is always inclined to make Taiwan an independent country, and Tsai Ing-wen herself always avoids talking about if she accepts “1992 Consensus” or not, which has been taken as the basis for any cooperation between the two sides by the mainland China.
In a television interview, Chinese commentator Liu Heping said if Tsai Ing-wen continues to ignore “1992 Consensus” and refuse its critical concept of “one China”, very severe results could be caused.
Many other experts and netizens in China take similar views. Chinese observer Sun Zhixing thinks that war may break out sooner or later if Tsai Ing-wen were elected as the president of Taiwan.
Sun said different from all his predecessors, President Xi has gained enough power, opportunity and determination to seize Taiwan Island. Mao and Deng gave up resuming Taiwan largely because the Chinese army didn’t have enough ability for doing so, and the background of Cold War also affected their decisions, for example, the outbreak of the Korean War.
But now, mainland China’s military is dozens of times of Taiwan’s, and as China has grown into a powerful country, even U.S. dares not to go to war with it easily.
When Ma Ying-jeou is in office, mainland China has no reason to attack Taiwan, no one likes war and Ma Ying-jeou was able to win supports of Taiwan people and meanwhile tries to develop a promising relationship with mainland China.
However, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party has no willingness to be close to mainland China, just like former presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, whose ultimate goal is to make Taiwan an independent nation.
Therefore, even if they have supports of Taiwanese, such supports will not be accepted or liked by mainland China, and once they get the ruling position, Taiwan’s independence forces could be more powerful, and peaceful reunification would become more and more pessimistic.
Mainland China could be condemned and even sanctioned by other countries once it attacks Taiwan, but that’s not what mainland China fears, China now has powerful war industry and economy, and the rest of the world would also need to cooperate with China in long term.
So Xi would have no reason to continue enduring the Taiwan independence’ protagonists if Tsai Ing-wen is elected and takes the road to “national independence”.