According to Chinese media, the Daily Mail reported on March 8 that Xu Qiliang, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC), recently attended the National People’s Congress and said that after the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump and the new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic, Sino-U.S. relations have become increasingly tense and it is difficult for both sides to escape the “Thucydides trap”. And China should increase its defense budget to modernize its military and thus prepare for the inevitable war.
Chinese officials have rarely spoken publicly about the Thucydides Trap in the past, according to the report. Xu Qiliang’s comments may be a sign of concern for U.S.-China relations under President Joe Biden’s administration.
In his first diplomatic speech, Joe Biden named Beijing as Washington’s “biggest competitor” and the United States will substantially continue the hard-line taken by Trump.
According to Chinese media, Bloomberg reported Xu Qiliang’s remarks on March 9, saying that Xu’s speech was delivered last Friday (March 5) and that the content was only recently released. Bloomberg commented that Xu Qiliang’s statement was an unusual acknowledgment of the risk of conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
Xu Qiliang said on March 5: “In the face of the ‘Thucydides trap’ and border disturbances, the military must step up efforts to improve its capabilities.” According to Bloomberg, Xu Qiliang’s reference to “border disturbances” may be an allusion to the deadly conflict between China and India in 2020, as well as territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas.
Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, who is also a member of the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, said on a separate occasion that “containment and counter-containment will be the main tone of bilateral relations between China and the United States.”
Bloomberg noted that the comments represent a rare acknowledgment by China that the risk of a confrontation between China and the United States has grown during the Trump administration as disputes between the two countries have escalated on everything from trade to Taiwan.
Chinese leaders have previously repeatedly downplayed the risk that China and the United States will fall into a Thucydides trap, with Chinese President Xi Jinping saying during a 2015 visit to the United States that such a conflict is not inevitable as long as both countries avoid strategic miscalculations.