Reposting a photo of Japan’s Ishigaki Island that accompanied a recent New York Times report, the Global Times website recently analyzed the missile base under construction on the island.
The “protagonist” of the photo is a land-based self-defense force missile base under construction on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. The photo shows that the construction site is quite busy, transport trucks, cranes and scaffolding in place, the general outline of the base has emerged.
Until now, Japan has been secretive about the construction of the Ishigaki Island missile base. But its progress and the “anti-China” impulse behind it, can not be hidden, as the geopolitical location of Ishigaki Island is too important and sensitive.
From the map, you can see that this small island is located in the east of Taiwan Island and south of Diaoyu Island, forming a triangle with the two. The Ministry of Defense of Japan promoted the deployment of missiles here, with obvious intentions, namely to reach out to the Diaoyu Islands with one hand and disrupt the Taiwan Strait with the other.
Some analysts also believe that it is not ruled out that the United States will be allowed to deploy medium-sized missiles here in the future.
But a military expert pointed out that any future provocation or movement of the Japanese missile base on Ishigaki Island, whether soft or hard, will be met by the Chinese countermeasures.
Some Japanese politicians, especially the right-wing forces, are ready to move. In the name of “self-defense,” they are constantly advancing toward breakthroughs in “special defense”, including building such a missile base on Ishigaki Island that is clearly “against China”.
These people are trying to kill three birds with one stone. But in the end, they will only put themselves in greater embarrassment and even danger.
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The construction of the missile base on Ishigaki Island is accelerating.
More than a month ago, at the end of October, there were Japanese media to visit the area, and found that compared to June, the construction site has changed radically. Previously, there were reports that the construction of the base had been significantly delayed, but this is apparently not the case.
The construction site is wide, the sound of construction is loud, and “the volume is amazing as you can see from the surrounding farmland.” A reporter who visited the site were impressed by this.
More recent news came three days ago. A New York Times story about Japan’s missile deployment on Ishigaki Island was accompanied by a bird’s eye view photo of the base under construction. The date of the photo is not known, but in general, the base is already taking shape.
Japan has been planning to deploy missiles on Ishigaki Island for a long time. By August this year, the plan was officially made public.
At that time, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun quoted Ministry of Defense officials as saying that Japan plans to deploy the Land Self-Defense Force missile base on Ishigaki Island by the end of 2022, the size of about five or six hundred people. One is an “application unit” equipped with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, and the other is a “police unit” that can respond to armed raids and serious natural disasters in the first instance.
Why deploy missiles here? Japan’s Ministry of Defense said relatively “subtle”, saying it is to strengthen the defense of the southwest islands.
But some Japanese media unapologetically said the real consideration of the Japanese side: to “counteract the increasingly active maritime activities of the Chinese military”.
The geographical location of Ishigaki Island determines the sensitivity of this action of Japan. The island is located at the southernmost tip of the Ryukyu Islands, about 200 kilometers from the Diaoyu Islands, and only 300 kilometers from Taiwan Island. Just how close is that? It is said that on Ishigaki Island, radio signals from Taiwan and even Fujian can be clearly received.
Prior to this, Japan had already deployed missiles on Amami-oshima, Okinawa’s main island and Miyako Island in the Ryukyu Islands. Together with the new missile base on Ishigaki Island, it will form a pattern of four positions co-existing, further weaving the military network of the first island chain.
The importance that Japanese right-wing politicians attach to this island is also well known.
The New York Times specifically mentioned this in its latest report, saying that because Ishigaki Island is adjacent to the Diaoyu Islands, it has long been visited by hawkish right-wing Japanese politicians who wish to enhance their so-called “national security prestige.
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With just one year to go before the completion date of 2022, Japan has apparently accelerated its efforts.
In late November, Japan’s Defense Ministry presented a record supplemental budget. The budget will be used mainly to purchase weapons and equipment to strengthen the defense of the southwestern islands.
The accelerated construction of the Ishigaki Island missile base is one of the important parts. While increasing the financial investment, Tokyo and some right-wing politicians are also racking their brains to create “justification” for this action.
Rendering the “danger” of Chinese maritime police ships cruising in the Diaoyu Islands waters, claiming that China will seize the islands by force…At the beginning of announcing the deployment of missiles on Ishigaki Island, Japan’s main rhetoric was to defend the Diaoyu Islands and counter the “Chinese military threat.”
Ishigaki Island was already home to Japan’s largest coast guard office, which devotes significant resources to patrolling the waters of the Diaoyu Islands. The Japanese side is further turning the issue of the Diaoyu Islands upside down, using it as a pretext to deploy missiles on Ishigaki Island.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait has also been described by the Japanese side as “a matter of security for Japan” as it jumps higher and higher on issues related to Taiwan.
The New York Times said some Japanese policymakers are “worried” that if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, China could take advantage of the opportunity to control the Diaoyu Islands or even seize Japan’s southernmost islands of Okinawa.
There is an analysis that if it comes to China’s armed unification of Taiwan, the entire sea near Taiwan will be designated as the main war zone, which would “endanger Japan’s economic lifeline”.
Japan’s spin on the Taiwan Strait issue has been pushed to a high point by Abe. The former Japanese prime minister and chairman of the largest faction of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), earlier this month made the nasty remark that “if something happens to Taiwan, something happens to Japan”. Yesterday, in a speech in Fukuoka, he again mentioned Taiwan-related issues and said that if China unites Taiwan with it, the situation may develop into “a state of affairs that is related to the existential crisis of Japan”.
In the words of a scholar of Japanese issues, this is total nonsense. Even if there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, it is unlikely to pose a so-called “threat” to Japan’s security as Abe and others have made it out to be. Neither mainland China nor Taiwan would attack Japan. Japan’s intervention in the Taiwan Strait is hyped as “self-defense”, which is simply untenable.
In addition to the Diaoyu Islands and stirring up the Taiwan Strait, Japan has of course also brought the United States into the picture. Abe said, “If something happens to Taiwan, something happens to Japan”, in fact, there is the second half of the sentence, “It is also the same as something happens to the Japan-US alliance”.
The far-right politician Sanae Takaichi recently made similar remarks, claiming that Japan, the United States and other “like-minded countries” should join forces against China on the Taiwan issue.
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The missile base on Ishigaki Island could facilitate a joint U.S.-Japan intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, the U.S. has been trying to deploy INF in Japan for a long time.
Back in September when the LDP presidential election, Fumio Kishida had responded to this issue. At the time, he left a “loose end”, saying that “it should not be completely denied”, but the medium-range ballistic missile with what kind of carrying capacity, deployment location has not been determined, without knowing the specific proposal, it is impossible to say whether to agree or deny, and therefore have reservations.
After the completion of the Ishigaki Island base, will the United States deploy the intermediate missile there?
According to several military experts, this possibility cannot be ruled out. Moreover, when missile bases are built, they usually leave room for improvement and debugging afterward according to the range and parameters of different missiles.
There is also news that it is based on missile bases in the southwestern islands such as Ishigaki Island that Japan and the United States are discussing the deployment of missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers to the island. Japan also intends to develop anti-ship missiles with longer ranges so that they can cover the Taiwan Strait.
Some Japanese politicians, especially the right-wing forces, have sinister intentions, as they have been hyping the Diaoyu Islands and the Taiwan Strait to portray the “Chinese military threat” and deploying anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles in close proximity to China, and even laying the groundwork for the future deployment of the U.S. missile.
How should China respond to these dangerous and foolish moves? A military expert said that the specific response and countermeasures will depend on the situation.
If the Japanese missile base in Ishigaki Island does not launch missiles but only turns on the guidance radar to carry out interference, China can make a “soft response”, which means electromagnetic interference against it.
If the other side dares to launch missiles, China can engage in “hard kill” and directly destroy the Japanese missile base on Ishigaki Island. China has the capability to do so, and the accuracy of a strike from this distance is very high. And once the Ishigaki Island base launches its missiles, it will encounter Chinese counterattacks from all sides, air and underwater, and so on.
If the U.S. really deploys Nakajima in Japan, such as at Ishigaki Island, the threat will certainly be greater than those missiles Japan has itself. But there is a fatal drawback to its deployment in Japan.
Japan, whether Ishigaki Island or any other island, is not very large, and missiles can be easily located wherever they move.
Comparatively speaking, China has a vast area and sufficient depth. As long as the U.S. and Japan dare to fire the first shot, China will not hesitate to destroy its missile bases, air bases, ports, and docks. Japan and even the United States should have a clear understanding of this, so before taking any unwise actions, they should carefully weigh what price they need to pay for this.
Japan’s right-wing politicians have been exaggerating the “China threat” and taking the opportunity to encourage the revision of the peace constitution and the development of “the ability to attack enemy bases,” including the promotion of the deployment of missile bases on Ishigaki Island and other malicious moves, which are all signs that they are abandoning “exclusive defense” and shifting to offensive operations.
In doing so, in addition to aggravating the anxiety of neighboring countries, it also puts Japanese people in Ishigaki Island and other places in danger.
Even the New York Times says that the residents of Ishigaki Island have long viewed China more as a commercial resource than a source of danger. But when the missile base is built, especially if it is used to attack China, the island is sure to become a target of a Chinese counterattack.
In the event of war, “everything will go with the wind.” A resident of Ishigaki Island is worried about this. But the right-wing forces in Japan, who deliberately advocate “anti-China”, have turned a deaf ear.