Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would be a diplomatic dilemma for Beijing and would not help promote the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, several Chinese experts said, according to a Feb. 16 report in Chinese media citing the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
Zhang Tuosheng, a former researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies at the National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army, noted that China certainly does not want to see a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that an invasion, while unlikely, would not be beneficial to China in terms of the economic and diplomatic pressure it would face from the United States and Europe.
Zhang Tuosheng said that in the event of a war between Russia and Ukraine, Beijing would face a difficult choice about how to react and how to respond to the pressure brought by the international community.
He explained that it would then be more difficult for China to deal with the United States, and relations between China and Europe would be very problematic because they are both concerned about China’s position.
U.S. Defense Department spokesman John Kirby on Feb. 14 accused China of “secretly supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” which was refuted by the Chinese side.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on Feb. 15 that under the current situation, it is not responsible to make speculation about war.
Will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine help China achieve its unification plans? Some Western officials have said that mainland China could use this Russian-Ukrainian crisis to invade Taiwan, but observers say Beijing is under no illusions that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would help achieve its plan to reunify Taiwan.
Zhang Tuosheng believes the war in Ukraine will not change the long-term strategic focus of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, regardless of any short-term disruptions.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, agrees. He says, “If war breaks out in Ukraine, the U.S. will have to pay less attention and resources to China in the Indo-Pacific region.”
But on the other hand, he argues, a war in Ukraine would be a big step on the road to the radicalization of world politics, destined to put enormous pressure on China over the arms race, Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Chinese experts also believe that Taiwan and Ukraine do not share the same strategic priorities of the United States, and they are not necessarily linked to each other.
Taiwan is not Ukraine, but China is closely monitoring the U.S. involvement in the Ukraine crisis, including the extent and manner of its allies’ involvement and the weapons used, which will inform China’s research, said Wang Jianmin, a Taiwan affairs expert at Fujian Minnan Normal University.
Wang stressed, “But this is different from the situation in Taiwan, which is completely different.”
In response to the intensifying crisis in Ukraine, China stressed that all parties concerned should remain “rational” and solve the problem through negotiations. But China also expressed sympathy and support for Russia’s security concerns in Europe.
The Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers issued a statement on Feb. 14 that they are prepared to impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin responded that China has always opposed the use of unilateral sanctions or the threat of sanctions in international relations. Under the current situation, unilateral sanctions will only aggravate division and confrontation.
Wang Wenbin said that China calls on all parties to remain rational and promote a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Ukraine and related issues through dialogue and negotiations, and not to do anything to stimulate tensions and exaggerate the crisis.