U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will adjust her schedule to visit Taiwan after visiting Japan on April 10 to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, according to a report by Taiwan’s United Daily News citing Japan’s Fuji News Network (FNN).
The media report also says that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is in the spotlight after Russia launched military action against Ukraine, leading to concerns that mainland China is changing the status quo by force. The U.S. government decided to adjust the itinerary urgently to show its support for Taiwan, and the planned visit to South Korea was canceled due to the visit to Taiwan.
The authenticity of the news remains in doubt, as it does not fit the strategic direction of Joe Biden’s administration, which is focusing on encircling Russia, nor does it fit Biden’s style as a diplomatic president. Biden had a video call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping just a short time ago and made ” four nos and one no intention” on the Taiwan issue (“not seeking a ‘new cold war’ with China, not seeking to change China’s institutions, not seeking to oppose China by strengthening alliances, and not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’, and have no intention of conflict with China”), with the aim of winning China over to Russia and not to provide Russia with arms assistance.
Although Joe Biden’s promises on Taiwan are not practically credible, it is indeed the Biden administration’s strategic direction now to maximize China’s neutrality in the war in Ukraine and to maximize isolation of Russia and Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. In terms of Biden’s policy intentions, there is no need for him to make a move like Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan at this time to deeply irritate China and squeeze it hard to Russia’s side. Moreover, Biden’s key staff members, whether Secretary of State Antony John Blinken or National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, are not radical risk-takers willing to see a war in Taiwan.
According to analyst Hang Ziya, if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan at this time, within the U.S. and Democratic Party, it means that Biden simply cannot restrain Nancy Pelosi, who simply ignores Biden’s presidential policy authority and his entire foreign policy team; outside, it means that in less than a month, the U.S. has already changed its original policy of trying to win over China and started to force China to use force against Taiwan, in order to push China and Russia into a “package” against the whole West, to complete the “hard decoupling” from China and Russia, and to push the world into a “new cold war”. If this is the case, then in addition to the “new cold war” that will come immediately, the “hot war” in the Taiwan Strait will also soon break out. The question the U.S. should ask itself is, if this happens, is it in the U.S.’s self-interest?
However, in this rapidly changing world, especially in the United States, where party and personal interests are the primary decision-making considerations, anything that seems impossible to the outside world cannot be completely ruled out.
In the confrontational dynamics between China and the U.S., because of the Joe Biden administration’s current depressed situation, it is not entirely excluded that he might make this radical move.
In particular, Russia’s embarrassing situation in the Ukraine war and the West’s isolation campaign against Russia around the Ukraine war issue may cause the U.S. to make a wrong judgment on the Taiwan issue. Therefore, China cannot and will not be able to take this as yet unconfirmed news lightly. The news has now been swiftly responded to by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
If Nancy Pelosi, the number three figure in American politics and a Democrat like Biden, were to visit Taiwan, it would be in a completely different context of U.S. domestic politics and U.S.-China relations than the 1997 visit of U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
For China, if this happens and China fails to respond in the most drastic way militarily, simply by military exercises or diplomatic protests or by recalling its ambassador, then China’s tough image of being a good and courageous fighter in its relations with the United States and the seriousness of the Chinese government’s “one-China” policy will be severely challenged internationally. To some extent, it would have been broken by the United States.
Hang Ziya believes that if Nancy Pelosi were to visit Taiwan, China would make its most violent military response yet, a response that the U.S. or Taiwan would be afraid of, perhaps in the form of military aircraft crossing the island, a no-fly zone in Taiwan, or a limited but determined local military operation.
This may be the outcome that some ultra-conservative forces in the deep U.S. government want, but is it an outcome that serves U.S. interests? Is it the outcome that mainland China and Taiwan want? Is it the outcome that most countries in the region and the world want?