By Cai Yi, a Taiwanese international relations scholar and the Executive Director of the East Asia Integration Research Center.
The Pentagon has released a report on China’s military capabilities, revealing a dramatic increase in the number of China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) from 80 to 150 by 2021. The bolstered arsenal signifies that any pre-emptive nuclear strike by the U.S. would be met with a formidable Chinese counterstrike.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s November 2022 report, titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” offers a comprehensive analysis of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the escalating tension between the two global powers. The standout feature of the report is its estimation that the PLA Rocket Force currently possesses 300 ICBMs and 300 ICBM launchers. When juxtaposed with last year’s figures—150 ICBMs and 100 launchers—the growth is staggering, leading some to speculate whether the U.S. is intentionally exaggerating China’s nuclear capabilities to perpetuate the narrative of a “Chinese threat.”
The 2022 report estimates China possesses 200 of the latest Dongfeng-41 ICBMs. These missiles are capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads with explosive yields ranging from 20 to 200 megatons. These numbers suggest that China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads may surpass external assessments. American nuclear experts believe that China would need to deploy over 400 ICBMs to ensure a significant “second-strike capability” after enduring a U.S. nuclear attack, cementing its strategic deterrence posture.
China’s annual increase in ICBM count—from 80 to 150 by 2021—had initially posed little threat to the U.S. due to China’s policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. The U.S. scenario hypothesized neutralizing a majority of China’s ICBMs with a first strike and then intercepting any surviving missiles using missile defense systems. However, the recent surge in China’s ICBM numbers now poses a tangible threat to the U.S.
While the commonly seen Dongfeng-41 missiles are mobile, using transporter erector launchers, they are often based in PLA Rocket Force compounds. In the event of a launch order, they are deployed to pre-designated launch sites. Their mobility makes them elusive, but high-resolution satellite surveillance makes their movements vulnerable. In contrast, strategic missiles hidden within China’s “Underground Great Wall”—a vast network of tunnels within mountain ranges—are more secure. Missiles like the Dongfeng-41, Dongfeng-31AG, Dongfeng-31A, Dongfeng-26, and Dongfeng-27 can be stationed within these tunnels, offering 24/7 alert readiness.
Western media has reported on the construction of over 400 potential missile silos in areas like Gansu, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. Recent satellite imagery suggests these sites are nearing completion, challenging prior theories that they were bases for wind turbines. While silos might seem like easy targets, the massive dispersal and underground mobility and loading capabilities make it challenging to identify which are armed. This approach, similar to Russia’s RS-24 deployment, mixes genuine threats with decoys.
As the U.S. continues its adversarial stance against China and Russia, the risk of nuclear conflict inevitably rises. To counter potential U.S. aggression, China is actively deploying space-based early warning systems. Upon detecting incoming missiles, China may perceive them as nuclear attacks and launch a comprehensive nuclear retaliation within a short time frame, adopting a “strike first if threatened” policy, hoping this proactive nuclear response policy will deter any escalation.
Source: Asia Weekly