China and the U.S. Defense Departments have confirmed that their top military officials communicated during the Defense Minister’s meeting held in Fiji in mid-August. This interaction marks the first offline exchange between the high ranks of both militaries this year. Scholars interviewed opined that this rare direct contact indicates a growing eagerness on both sides to avoid misjudgments and manage risks, especially as bilateral relations seem to be easing.
China’s Ministry of National Defense spokesperson, Wu Qian, stated on Thursday (August 31) that Deputy Chief of the Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department, General Xu Qiling, led a delegation to Fiji from August 12th to 18th. During this period, he attended the Indo-Pacific Military Command Meeting and communicated with representatives from the U.S. and other countries.
The Pentagon also reported on the same day that the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader, Admiral John Aquilino, had meetings with a high-ranking Chinese official between August 14th and 16th.
Although neither defense department divulged further details, the shared information suggests that Xu Qiling and Aquilino likely held talks in Fiji.
Relations between the U.S. and China were strained after Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan in August 2022. China subsequently suspended its military interactions with the U.S. The situation was further complicated in February when Chinese balloons entered U.S. airspace, hindering efforts to re-establish high-level military communication between the two nations.
Later, the U.S. proposed a meeting between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu in Singapore in June, during the Shangri-La Dialogue. However, China rejected the offer, demanding the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Li Shangfu since 2018.
Wu Qian emphasized on Thursday that military interactions between China and the U.S. have not been severed, and both sides maintain open and honest communication through military diplomacy channels.
Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder expressed hope that Aquilino’s meeting would be part of regular dialogues with China, stating, “We will always keep the communication channels open, especially when both major militaries are active in the same region.”
Professor Wang Yong, Director of the American Studies Center at Peking University, analyzed that both nations are extending goodwill gestures towards each other through various means, with high-ranking U.S. officials frequently visiting China, significantly stabilizing bilateral relations and enhancing mutual trust.
Wang predicts that with the U.S. not yet lifting sanctions on Li Shangfu, the direct contact between high-ranking officials of both militaries indicates thawing tensions.
International military and foreign affairs expert, Professor Ni Lexiong from Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, evaluated the current impasse over the U.S. sanctions on Li Shangfu, stating both countries are steadfast and unwilling to give in. Still, they have practical matters to discuss, so they have adopted a lower-level approach to communication without losing face.
However, Ni believes that this high-level military face-to-face communication does not necessarily mean that the tense relationship between the two countries is beginning to thaw. Instead, it’s to set barriers, regulate competition, and prevent war in the region.
He stated that meeting through a level just below the Defense Ministers suggests both sides have pressing domestic issues and are not prepared to escalate conflicts.
Ni assesses that dialogue can stabilize the military tension between the U.S. and China to some extent, but it will not affect their strategic objectives in the region, including preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Wang argued that freezing military dialogues between the U.S. and China benefits neither party. As both militaries increasingly encounter each other in the sea and air, the risk of unintended clashes grows. Hence, resuming dialogue becomes crucial.
Wang predicts that the conditions for the U.S. to lift sanctions on Li Shangfu are “increasingly ripe,” possibly even before the U.S.-China summit this November.
Source: Lianhe Zaobao