Over the past 20 years, the progress and enhancement of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can be described as remarkable, especially the growth in naval and aerial capabilities. This fact has visibly upset the US, Japan, and Taiwan. Reports assessing China’s military power are increasingly converging on one conclusion: there’s no stopping the rise of the PLA. Japan, which is on the frontline and has rich experience in handling such situations, is the most credible observer and recorder of this trend.
On October 13, the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ Joint Staff Office released the so-called “Airspace Emergency Response Report for the First Half of 2023”. This report heavily emphasizes the “threat from China”, asserting that PLA aircraft have become the primary source of Japan’s so-called airspace incidents.
From the report, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) reported 424 “air emergency incidents” in the first half of 2023 (from April 1 to September 30). The majority of these, 72%, involved the PLA, while Russia accounted for about 26%, and other countries just 2%.
According to the JASDF, in the first half of 2023, they scrambled 304 times to intercept PLA combat aircraft, slightly less than the 340 times in the same period of 2022. Although the numbers have slightly declined, the activities of the PLA’s combat aircraft continue at a very high frequency, overburdening the JASDF.
In comparison, JASDF’s intercepts of Russian combat aircraft were only 110 times during this period, slightly up from 95 times last year. Of the 22 major air incidents reported by Japan in the first half of 2023, 16 involved PLA aircraft or joint China-Russia aerial patrols, while only 6 were pure interceptions of Russian aircraft.
Concerning interception regions, the PLA’s southwestern aerial units were the most active, with 257 sorties, compared to only 72 for the Russian northern units. After the normalization of joint China-Russia aerial patrols, the frequency of interceptions by JASDF’s central and western units has also increased.
The JASDF complains about the diversifying activities of PLA combat aircraft. These aircraft are not only fighters and bombers but also include AWACS, electronic warfare planes, and drones. Both the PLA Air Force and Navy’s aerial troops are involved, along with frequent China-Russia joint aerial patrols.
For example, in the first half of 2023, the Chinese and Russian air forces conducted long-distance patrol flights, and the PLA’s Shandong fleet carried out over 600 combat take-offs and landings, overwhelming the JASDF.
The purpose of this report by Japan is clear: it serves as a pretext for strategic adjustments in the Japan Self-Defense Forces. Historically, their deployment strategy was “heavy in the north, light in the south”, focusing on Russia. However, as the US perceives the PLA as the primary threat and seeks to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, Japan, as a US ally, will naturally adjust its strategy in line with the US.
The main air emergencies now come from the southwest for JASDF, which has traditionally placed its Air Defense Identification Zone very close to China’s coast, just over 100 kilometers from Zhejiang province. Previously, whenever Chinese aircraft flew eastward for a few minutes, Japan scrambled jets in response.
Now, the overall capabilities of the PLA Air Force and the Naval Air Force dwarf those of the JASDF. While some in Japan remain stuck in past perspectives, the PLA’s spokesperson remarked, “In the past, we flew less; now it’s routine. Some people need to adjust.”
Source: Wang Yanan