Although the 5-day Dubai Airshow concluded on November 17, various rumors about military or civilian trade from the airshow continue to circulate, especially regarding China’s aviation industry. In this airshow, three key models from China’s aviation industry – J-10CE, L-15, and Y-20BE – have all attracted significant interest from major players in the Middle East and North Africa. We won’t delve into these models further here.
The focus here is on China’s flagship for foreign trade, the L-15 “Falcon” advanced trainer. During the Dubai Airshow, it was essentially confirmed that the rumors from earlier in the year about the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Air Force purchasing 12 L-15s were true. These aircraft are purportedly intended for the refurbishment of their “Knight” aerobatic display team, which currently operates six Italian-made MB-339 intermediate trainers. Since 12 aircraft for the display team seem excessive, it is estimated that the remaining six may be assigned to operational units. In addition to the 12 planes, it is rumored that the UAE Air Force has expressed an intention to procure an additional 36, bringing the potential total order to 48. For the L-15, which had previously only sold six units to the Zambian Air Force, this represents an unprecedented large-scale deal.
Apart from the UAE, another potential L-15 user is Pakistan. According to information disclosed by the U.S. “Defense Blog,” Pakistan is considering replacing its domestically purchased J-7PG (F-7PG) fighter jets, which have been in service since 1997, with the L-15. While this arms deal seems to be in the early stages of negotiation with limited information available, given that the Pakistan Air Force currently operates approximately 60 F-7P/PG fighter jets, the potential order could be substantial.
The question arises: What are the intentions of the UAE and Pakistan in purchasing or expressing interest in the L-15, and can the L-15 fulfill the tactical missions assigned by these two air forces?
UAE Air Force
Let’s start with the UAE. The motivation behind the UAE’s purchase of the L-15 was analyzed earlier this year, and currently, the UAE Air Force is facing an “aircraft shortage.” The UAE Air Force’s mid-to-high-level trainer aircraft come from two systems: BAE’s Hawk series and MBB’s MB series. The former introduced 43 aircraft from MK61 to MK102 between 1981 and 1993, while the latter imported 12 aircraft in the 1990s, with 48 of these still in service. However, due to the long procurement period, high flight hours, and large number of takeoffs and landings, the overall fleet of high-level trainer aircraft in the UAE Air Force has aged significantly. This aging poses challenges in meeting the training needs of UAE Air Force cadets, especially with the “Knight” aerobatic display team also requiring a portion of the high-level trainer fleet. Additionally, the UAE Air Force is undergoing a major upgrade of its main combat equipment, having recently procured 80 Rafale fighters in addition to the existing Mirage-2000-5/9 and F-16E/F Block60, bringing the total number of advanced fourth-generation and fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters to over 200. This places higher demands on pilot training. The existing Hawk and MB339 series high-level trainer aircraft, introduced in the eighties and nineties, are at best fourth-generation trainers and are inadequate to meet the training needs of pilots for fourth-and-a-half-generation and future fifth-generation fighters. Therefore, the purchase of a batch of fourth-generation high-level trainer aircraft by the UAE Air Force is justifiable. Currently available options include Italy’s M346, Russia’s Yak-130, South Korea’s T-50, and our L-15. After several comparisons, it is not surprising that the UAE chose the L-15.
Pakistan Air Force
As for the Pakistan Air Force, the situation is even more challenging. The training system of the Pakistan Air Force is somewhat similar to that of the Chinese Air Force over a decade ago. Initially, primary flight training is completed on aircraft such as the MFI-395 and T-37, followed by advanced flight training on the K-8P trainer. After completing the K-8P, Pakistani Air Force cadets are assigned to three squadrons: the 16th, 20th, and 23rd, one of which is a tactical training squadron of the Training Command, while the other two are operational squadrons. Despite being operational squadrons, they are also responsible for combat training tasks. After completing combat training in these three squadrons, Pakistani pilots are then transferred to other squadrons to fly fourth-generation fighters.
While this system may seem functional, the current situation is different from before. The Pakistan Air Force faces two main challenges:
- The transition from existing fourth-generation fighters to fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters. For example, the J-10CE and FC-1 Block3 “JF-17 Thunder,” with Pakistan likely to purchase 72 units of the former and a similar number of the latter. This suddenly transforms the Pakistan Air Force into a predominantly third-and-a-half-generation air force. Based on our pilot training experience, relying on the J-7B/E to train pilots for third-and-a-half-generation fighters is challenging, and similar-type training is necessary, posing a significant problem for Pakistan.
- The age of the existing J-7P/PG fleet. The J-7P was delivered no later than 1993, and the F-7P was completed by 2002, with current service lives ranging from 20 to 30 years. Given the known retirement lifespan of around 3000 flight hours or 20 calendar years for the MiG-21 series, under specific load spectra, many of Pakistan’s J-7P/PG aircraft are already in overextended service and find it difficult to execute operational tasks. Even if they could, they must be replaced, and Pakistan’s Air Force itself estimates that these aircraft have at most five to six years of remaining life.
As a result, regardless of whether transitioning from the K-8P to the J-7PG and then to the FC-1 and J-10CE or flying a third-generation jet after completing the K-8P, the Pakistan Air Force struggles to meet training demands. The existing pilot training system is unsustainable, leaving the only option as the purchase of advanced trainer aircraft. Once they decide to buy advanced trainer aircraft, Pakistan’s options are very limited. NATO equipment may not be accessible, and Russian Yak-130 or South Korean T-50 do not align with Pakistan’s current predominance of Chinese-style main combat equipment. In this process of elimination, the L-15 advanced trainer aircraft is the most suitable for the requirements of the Pakistan Air Force, making the likelihood of us securing this arms deal very high.
Configuration Preferred by Pakistan
Some may question the current rumors, stating that Pakistan’s purchase of the L-15 advanced trainer is for the Lead-In Fighter Training (LIFT) configuration, serving as a basic trainer and an introduction to combat (Fighter Lead-In Training, FLIT), rather than the Air-to-Air and Air-to-Ground Fighter Trainer (AFT) configuration, which balances both air combat and ground attack missions. The significant difference between the two configurations is that the AFT uses a turbofan engine with an afterburner for supersonic flight, providing inherent air combat intercept capabilities. In fact, the J-7P/PG fighter jets currently possessed by the Pakistan Air Force theoretically have some air combat capabilities. If Pakistan is indeed abandoning the purchase of the AFT configuration, does it mean giving up the ability of its trainer fleet to perform tactical missions? Furthermore, since the LIFT configuration cannot achieve supersonic flight, can it meet the requirements for training?
This is not a significant issue. On one hand, from the perspective of the flight performance of modern advanced trainer aircraft, supersonic flight is not a strict technical requirement. Traditional advanced trainer aircraft, such as the J-7 trainer, used mechanical hydraulic control systems, and the flight performance differed between subsonic and supersonic flight. There were significant differences in control feel, and pilots had to experience supersonic flight to feel the differences in flight characteristics between subsonic and supersonic flight. Therefore, advanced trainer aircraft and fighter trainer aircraft with supersonic flight capabilities were considered a necessary performance parameter. With the advent of advanced trainers equipped with fly-by-wire control systems, which can simulate the control performance of the aircraft through flight control computer calculations, even if the aircraft is in the subsonic regime, the fly-by-wire system can simulate the control characteristics of the supersonic regime by adjusting control parameters, allowing trainee pilots to experience the characteristics of supersonic flight on the control stick. Therefore, the L-15 advanced trainer aircraft in the LIFT configuration does not need to achieve true supersonic flight; subsonic flight is sufficient for training purposes.
On the other hand, considering the load spectrum characteristics of fighter aircraft, if a tactical aircraft needs to fly supersonically or carry a large payload, perform high-g maneuvers, etc., its load spectrum performance and flight actions are relatively gentle. In contrast, daily flights in a high-performance advanced trainer, which are stable and steady, are quite different. With higher speeds and greater dynamic pressures, carrying larger loads has a greater impact on the aircraft structure. These factors can affect the aircraft’s lifespan. As a financially constrained air force, when the Pakistan Air Force purchases advanced trainer aircraft, economic considerations are likely the primary factor. They would prioritize ensuring that the aircraft can be used for a long time, ideally for thirty or forty years.
In this situation, whether the aircraft has supersonic flight capabilities or can perform certain air-to-ground attack functions is not a top priority for the Pakistan Air Force; indeed, an advanced trainer aircraft with such capabilities may have performance surplus and could adversely affect its primary mission. Therefore, compared to South Korea’s T-50, which, under the guise of developing a trainer, ended up producing a light fighter, the L-15 advanced trainer aircraft is more in line with the requirements of the Pakistan Air Force.
Therefore, although the purchase of the L-15 by the UAE and Pakistan has not been officially confirmed, from a simple analysis of feasibility and necessity, I am confident that our L-15 will secure these two markets. Let’s wait for the official announcement. (Jun Wu)