The US State Department released a statement on November 7th, stating that China and the US held a rare arms control meeting in Washington, D.C. on November 6th. This marked the first such meeting between the two countries since July 2019.
The meeting was attended by Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance from the US, and Sun Xiaobo, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The US delegation also included senior officials from the State Department, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, and the National Security Council.
The US State Department stated that the meeting covered issues related to arms control and non-proliferation and was characterized as “frank and in-depth.” They added that this meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open communication channels and responsibly manage bilateral relations. The statement emphasized the need to promote stability, help avoid an uncontrolled arms race, and manage competition to prevent conflict.
Regarding the outcome of the negotiations, the South China Morning Post reported on November 8th, citing a US think tank, that while the two sides seemed to have discussed a wide range of issues, they did not achieve the breakthrough or substantive results that were expected. However, the Monday meeting provided insights into China’s current nuclear stockpile.
According to Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin, during a visit to the US by Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Chinese Foreign Minister, the two sides agreed to hold a series of discussions, including those related to arms control and non-proliferation.
Vedant Patel, a spokesperson for the US State Department, stated on Monday, “We have consistently called on China to engage in substantive discussions on arms control to reduce strategic risks, and this engagement will continue to work responsibly to manage the relationship, ensuring that competition does not escalate into conflict.”
In recent years, the US has continuously raised concerns about China’s rapid nuclear expansion. According to the “China Military Power Report” published by the US in 2023, the US estimated that China had 500 intercontinental ballistic missile launchers and 350 ready-to-launch intercontinental ballistic missiles. Regarding the number of warheads, the report claimed that as of May 2023, China possessed 500 nuclear warheads, and by 2030, this number could expand to 1,000.
In January of this year, General Anthony Cotton, Commander of US Strategic Command, wrote to the US Congress, stating that as of October 2022, China had surpassed the US in the number of land-based intercontinental ballistic missile launchers. Under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START III), the US has a total of 406 “Minuteman III” intercontinental ballistic missiles under the control of the US Air Force Global Strike Command.
Zhao Tong, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has long been involved in discussions about China’s nuclear forces, said that while the two sides seemed to have discussed a wide range of issues, they did not achieve the breakthrough or substantive results expected. Zhao stated that the US government hopes to start with easier and smaller steps, including transparency and trust-building measures, which could help alleviate the arms race and achieve the broader goal of maintaining stability.
An assessment by the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting company, indicated that expectations for progress in the Monday meeting were low. It noted significant disagreements between Beijing and Washington on nuclear proliferation and arms control. However, the consulting company added that the Monday meeting provided a rare opportunity for insights into China’s current nuclear stockpile.
Nevertheless, the South China Morning Post mentioned that since the primary participants in the meeting were civilian officials from both countries, the meeting did not signify progress at the military level.
Regarding the US’s concerns about China’s nuclear expansion, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying stated, “First of all, the US report, like similar reports before it, disregards facts, is full of bias, and spreads the ‘China threat theory,’ with the sole purpose of finding excuses to maintain its military hegemony. China firmly opposes this.”
China adheres to a nuclear strategy of self-defense, maintaining its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security. China has no intention of engaging in a nuclear arms race with any country. China’s nuclear policy is unique among nuclear-armed states and remains highly stable, consistent, and predictable. As long as no country uses or threatens to use nuclear weapons against China, there is no threat from China’s nuclear weapons.