According to the U.S. media outlet “War Zone,” the legendary Lockheed Martin Skunk Works facility has developed a top-secret reconnaissance drone, speculated to be a successor to the RQ-180. This advanced reconnaissance drone has already been delivered to the U.S. military!
Tailless configuration with a rear-mounted engine? Supersonic flight rumors – are they true?
On November 3, in the latest episode of the “Defense and Aerospace Power Podcast,” host Vago Muradian and JJ Gertler, a senior analyst from the Teal Group, unveiled a mysterious new spy drone from the Skunk Works facility. Muradian explained that it is a “more capable reconnaissance aircraft than the RQ-180” and that “a portion of these aircraft has already been delivered to the Air Force.” However, the exact quantity and the stage of the program were not disclosed.
Muradian added, “The program faced some challenges, and there were rumors it had been canceled.” But he clarified that the program had not been canceled but had been redefined in scope because it was an ambitious project requiring some redefinition to move to the next phase.
In the podcast, Muradian mentioned that the Air Force, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman have plans to retire the U-2, RQ-4, and RQ-180 to pave the way for the arrival of the new reconnaissance drone. However, no specific information about the aircraft, including the blurry computer-generated image distributed by major media, was made public.
What is the aerodynamic design? Supersonic or long-endurance?
The U.S. media “War Zone” published two reports about this spy drone, but there are two different perspectives on the drone’s definition. One view suggests it’s a high-altitude, high-speed drone, while the other suggests it’s a high-altitude, long-endurance drone. However, there’s a problem because the aerodynamic layouts of these two types of drones are entirely different. So, which one is more reasonable?
The first perspective was presented by Joseph Trevithick, who believes that it is at least a high-speed drone, even if not supersonic, it should be high-subsonic. Although the accompanying image is quite blurry, it is sufficient to analyze its flight performance.
From the image, it is evident that this is a tailless, stealthy, high-speed drone with a delta wing configuration, rear-mounted engines, and rear-facing intakes. This aerodynamic layout suggests it doesn’t require extremely high maneuverability. While jet thrust vectoring technology can achieve high maneuverability without vertical tail surfaces, it is more suitable for reconnaissance or bomber aircraft with lower maneuverability requirements, aligning with its role as a reconnaissance drone.
Rear-mounted engines and rear-facing intakes are measures for extreme stealth, as the intake’s angles and shapes can generate strong radar returns. Rear-mounted engines also reduce the drone’s infrared signature, achieving good stealth characteristics in the infrared spectrum. One drawback of this layout is that it limits high angle-of-attack maneuvers, but for a reconnaissance drone, this is not a significant concern.
Large delta wing with high sweep angle: This configuration is somewhat similar to the F-22’s diamond wing, but with a slightly smaller aspect ratio. The F-22 has an aspect ratio of approximately 2.36, while this drone’s aspect ratio is estimated to be around 2.0, slightly larger than the SR-71’s aspect ratio. This places the drone’s speed between that of the F-22 and the SR-71, with an estimated maximum speed of approximately Mach 3.
Wedge-shaped, flat front: This design serves to balance the longitudinal lift of high-speed, low-aspect-ratio aircraft. A long nose creates a forward center of gravity, which requires a wedge-shaped front to balance lift in the longitudinal direction. A wedge-shaped and flat front not only reduces drag but also contributes to stealth. The disadvantage is that extra trim forces are needed during high angle-of-attack maneuvers, which can reduce maneuverability. However, for a reconnaissance drone, this is not a significant concern.
Another perspective: Supersonic or high-altitude, long-endurance
Therefore, according to Joseph Trevithick’s image, the drone is consistent with his definition of a high-speed reconnaissance drone. However, another author, Thomas Newdick, does not entirely agree. He suggests that this drone could serve two purposes:
- Replacing the U-2, RQ-4, and RQ-180 as a strategic reconnaissance drone. In this case, it’s less likely to be a high-speed drone and more likely to be a high-altitude, long-endurance drone.
- Lockheed Martin has been working on supersonic reconnaissance drones for a while, such as the SR-71 and the ill-fated SR-72. In 2016, Lockheed proposed a drone program called “Skunk Works” to validate SR-72 technology, but it later disappeared. Lockheed has invested significantly in supersonic technology, and it’s possible that they could eventually achieve a supersonic reconnaissance drone.
The most advanced reconnaissance drone in the U.S. inventory: How will the Chinese Air Force respond?
The U.S. has historically maintained an advantage over China in the field of high-altitude reconnaissance drones. The U-2, SR-71, and later the RQ-4 and RQ-180 have been significant players. The U-2 and SR-71, in particular, have been iconic aircraft, with the SR-71’s futuristic design still capturing the imagination of many.
However, both the U-2 and SR-71 were eventually vulnerable to missiles, as there are always missiles that can fly higher and faster. The shift in reconnaissance drones was toward high-altitude, long-endurance platforms, as seen with the RQ-4 and RQ-180, in the era of stealth aircraft. This has raised the question of whether the Chinese Air Force should focus on high-speed or long-endurance drones for reconnaissance.
In response, China has developed a range of high-altitude, high-speed and high-altitude, long-endurance drones:
- WZ-7: A high-altitude, long-endurance reconnaissance drone with a length of 14.33 meters, wingspan of 24.86 meters, cruising speed of 700 kilometers per hour, and cruising altitude of 18,000 to 20,000 meters, with a range of 5,000 kilometers.
- WZ-8: A high-altitude, high-speed drone with a length of 11.5 meters, wingspan of 6.7 meters, a top speed of Mach 6, an altitude exceeding 30,000 meters, and a range of over 3,000 kilometers.
- WZ-9: The “Shendiao” drone, with an estimated wingspan exceeding 50 meters. It is designed for early warning, so its altitude and range may not be as high as the others but should provide longer detection ranges than manned early warning aircraft.
These high-altitude, high-speed, or high-altitude, long-endurance drones can directly threaten U.S. military bases in the Western Pacific. To deal with these challenges and the advancements in Chinese drone technology, the U.S. has been working on various plans in recent years.
One well-known plan is the “Replicator” project, aiming to create thousands of drones to flood the PLA, but it’s essential to note that the cost of producing similar drones in China is only about 20% of the U.S. cost. The reasons behind this cost difference include China’s efficient cost control and the development of high-performance, low-cost turbofan engines. Therefore, in a large-scale drone war, China’s low-cost drones would have comparable performance to the U.S., with a significant numerical advantage.
Currently, the U.S. military possesses highly advanced weapons systems, but behind them lies a critical weakness. According to Major General Cameron Holt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, China’s defense research and development speed and equipment efficiency have reached five to six times that of the U.S.
Major General Holt warned in 2022 that the U.S. spent $20 in military costs to achieve a goal, while China could achieve the same goal with just $1. The U.S. risks losing in this arms race if it doesn’t change this situation.
While Major General Holt’s statement may be somewhat exaggerated, it is a fact that China’s equipment costs are significantly lower than the U.S. The U.S. military currently spends over $870 billion, but the actual value achieved may be less than a third of that. China’s cost control and the development of high-performance, low-cost turbofan engines contribute to its lower drone production costs.
Although the U.S. currently has an advantage in terms of quantity, the reality is that China can match the U.S. in terms of performance at a fraction of the cost. This dynamic presents a significant challenge for the U.S. military.
In conclusion, the U.S. and China are engaged in a competition to develop advanced reconnaissance drones, with each side pursuing different designs and strategies. The outcome of this competition will have implications for military intelligence and strategic capabilities in the future. (Xing Chen)