In 2024, a “year of elections” globally, Professor Jin Canrong from the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China pointed out that the polarization between left and right in various countries is intense, with “the left leaning more left and the right leaning more right,” leading to extreme diplomatic positions. In East Asia, China already has an absolute advantage, making the resolution of cross-strait unification issues “possible now.”
An interview with renowned Chinese mainland international affairs expert Jin Canrong was published on January 30th by Chinese media “Observer.” Looking ahead to the international situation in 2024, Jin Canrong noted the escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, expanding conflicts in the Middle East, and rising potential risks in East Asia. He mentioned, “China is also a bit dangerous here, with issues in the Philippines and some danger in the Taiwan Strait.”
Jin Canrong highlighted that around 70 countries, covering a population of approximately 4.17 billion people, will hold elections in 2024. These include important countries and regions like the United States, Russia, and the European Union. Changes in leadership in these areas will have significant impacts on international relations.
Furthermore, Jin Canrong expressed concerns about the intense left-right divisions within countries, both domestically and in foreign affairs, emphasizing the growing trend towards extremism. He stressed that such polarization is not conducive to global peace, stability, and healthy development.
Regarding the development of cross-strait relations after the Taiwan elections, Jin Canrong believed that the election of Lai Ching-te, known as “Taiwan’s ‘Independence Grandson,'” was anticipated. This reflects the stable political landscape in Taiwan, where the Green Camp is dominant, leaning towards independence, while the Blue Camp is smaller, making peaceful reunification challenging. Ultimately, the resolution of the Taiwan issue depends on the mainland’s development.
Jin Canrong analyzed that if China’s absolute strength surpasses that of the United States, resolving the Taiwan issue would become easier. Although there is still a gap between China’s current absolute strength and that of the United States, there is a certain advantage in the specific Taiwan region.
He emphasized that once China fully catches up with the United States, solving the Taiwan issue becomes more proactive. However, given China’s absolute advantage in East Asia now, he stated, “In a sense, we can resolve it now, right?”
Regarding China-US relations, Jin Canrong stated that the political background in the United States is deteriorating, and he expected a more negative overall trend in China-US relations in 2024 compared to 2023. Using the “China card” in domestic politics is convenient for the United States, with minimal costs. Therefore, he suggested that China should prepare for the worst.