Analyzing China’s Strategy to Counter ‘Taiwan Independence’ over Next 4 Years Through Lens of ‘Kinmen Capsizing Incident’

[Editor’s note] On February 14th, Taiwan claimed that a mainland Fujian-registered speedboat crossed the border for fishing, and when the Kinmen Coast Guard rushed to pursue it, the speedboat capsized with four people falling into the sea. Four people were rescued, but unfortunately, two of them died after being sent to the hospital. Former Taiwanese “Legislator” Cai Zhengyuan lamented on Facebook, “This sounds the alarm on cross-strait issues at the beginning of the new year!”

Yesterday (19th), mainland China’s “Straits Voice” published an article titled “From the ‘Kinmen Capsizing Incident’ Handling, to Understand Mainland China’s Basic Strategy for Combating ‘Taiwan Independence’ in the Next Four Years,” stating that the DPP authorities in Taiwan attempted to set rules for mainland fishermen through the incident, seriously damaging cross-strait relations. Over the next four years, every move by Lai Ching-te to “plot independence” will become an opportunity for the mainland to solidly promote peaceful development, integration, and resolutely advance the process of national reunification.

[This article is from “Straits Voice” (formerly known as the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Fujian Frontline Radio Station, established on August 24, 1958, and broadcasted to Kinmen, Taiwan on the same day, currently under the Central Military Commission’s Political Work Department).]

On the afternoon of February 14, a fishing boat from Fujian was driven away by the Taiwanese side in the waters near Kinmen, causing all four people on board to fall into the sea, resulting in the deaths of two people. (Taiwan Coast Guard Administration)

In the “Kinmen Capsizing Incident,” the Taiwan Coast Guard and the DPP authorities behind it showed a strong hostility of “not even letting mainland residents have a good year.” This hostility not only continues their consistent advocacy of “resisting China and preserving Taiwan,” but also shows their flattery towards “pragmatic Taiwan independence workers” like Lai Ching-te, who is about to take office.

As the incident escalated, some Taiwanese media reports revealed the cruel plight of mainland fishermen, which was previously unknown to the outside world. According to statistics from the Taiwan Coast Guard, from 2017 to November 2023 alone, Taiwan cracked down on mainland sand dredging ships 19 times, confiscated 16 times, and dealt with 9,171 so-called “illegal crossing” mainland fishing vessels, detaining 392 and confiscating 83. The editorial of Taiwan’s “United Daily News” pointed out that although the Kinmen incident was an accident, there was inevitability within the contingency.

It should be noted that the law enforcement by the Taiwan Coast Guard is based on the so-called “prohibited and restricted waters” unilaterally defined by the Taiwan authorities. In fact, since both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China, Taiwan is an integral part of China’s territory, and the waters between Xiamen and Kinmen have always been a traditional fishing ground where fishermen from both sides could operate together.

Previously, out of goodwill and tacit understanding, the mainland did not emphasize this issue too much, maintaining the balance and stability of the Xiamen-Kinmen waters. However, after the DPP came to power, especially after Lai Ching-te’s victory, the Taiwan Coast Guard showed no restraint and escalated provocations, seriously threatening the safety of mainland fishermen’s lives and property. The mainland must take decisive action to strike back against the troublemakers.

In dealing with the “Kinmen Capsizing Incident,” despite the strong indignation, the mainland still maintained great patience. The Taiwan Affairs Office issued statements twice, urging the Taiwan side to release the boat and personnel as soon as possible, to properly handle the aftermath, to investigate the truth, and to seriously deal with relevant responsible persons, giving an explanation to the families of the deceased and compatriots on both sides of the strait.

The mainland straightforwardly and directly provided solutions to the problem, also leaving room for the other side. Unfortunately, the DPP authorities still maintained a tough stance, missing the crucial time to handle the crisis properly. Subsequently, the mainland maritime police quickly took action, launching routine law enforcement patrols in the waters between Xiamen and Kinmen. Mainland Fishing Boat Capsizes in Kinmen, 2 Dead – Taiwan Affairs Office: Taiwan Sacrifices Lives – Support Mainland Maritime Police Routine Law Enforcement Fujian Maritime Police Inspects Xiamen-Kinmen Waters on a Yacht, Inspections Last 30 Minutes – Tourists: Feels Like a Demonstration

Before this, the “Kinmen Capsizing Incident” could still be resolved as a case through communication and negotiation between the two sides. However, now this incident has entered a deeper level, which is the origin and actual control of sovereignty in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters.

To put it more bluntly, it’s seriously asking Taiwan, who does the Xiamen-Kinmen waters belong to? Who is operating illegally? Who crossed the line?

Military expert Zhang Junshe stated in an interview that the law enforcement patrols conducted by the mainland maritime police in the waters between Xiamen and Kinmen confirm that there are no “prohibited and restricted waters” in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters. This is a normal exercise of sovereignty, which is beyond reproach from the perspective of international law and domestic law.

Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, pointed out that the mainland maritime police have no restricted areas in law enforcement in the waters between Xiamen and Kinmen, and their actions are completely justified, legal, and compliant. He believes that this law enforcement activity is of historical significance.

Tian Feilong, director of the Association for Studies of Cross-Strait Relations Law, pointed out that Taiwan’s resistance against mainland China represented by “the boundary of regulations” of local separatist regimes stands untenable in both international law and constitutional law. Now that the peace is broken and conventions are broken, Taiwan can only accept the new normalcy of mainland maritime police law enforcement in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters and dare not violate the legitimate rights and interests protected by the Chinese Constitution of mainland fishermen again.

Reviewing the development context of the entire incident, it still follows the “process” of “Taiwan authorities provoking – mainland warnings – Taiwan authorities ignoring – mainland taking action.” Every time the DPP authorities become restless, the mainland strikes back; every time the “Taiwan independence” forces become arrogant, they are defeated.

In 2022, the DPP authorities instigated then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan, and mainland China issued stern warnings multiple times. However, the DPP authorities turned a deaf ear to it. After Pelosi’s visit in August of that year, the PLA immediately launched unprecedented scale island encirclement exercises, with Dongfeng missiles crossing the island, and the so-called “median line of the strait” completely disappeared.

In 2023, the DPP attempted to bring then Speaker of the US House of Representatives McCarthy to Taiwan, which was strongly opposed by the mainland and abandoned. However, in April of that year, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen still met with McCarthy under the guise of “transiting.” Subsequently, fleets led by the “06 Patrol” conducted joint patrol and inspection operations in the Taiwan Strait; the PLA dispatched various equipment including the “Shandong” aircraft carrier to conduct high-intensity exercises. The presence of PLA warplanes and warships “watching” Taiwan became routine.

Just at the beginning of 2024, the DPP authorities attempted to “set rules” for mainland fishermen through the “Kinmen Capsizing Incident,” seriously hurting the feelings of compatriots on both sides of the strait and severely damaging cross-strait relations. The mainland completely abolished the “prohibited or restricted waters” set in the Xiamen-Kinmen waters, which is just right.

After the dust settles on these events, the “Taiwan independence” forces may as well ask themselves honestly: at this moment, are they closer to “independence” or closer to “reunification”?

The Eastern Theater Command continues to organize patrols around the island and conducts “Sword” exercises. On April 10th, naval vessels from the theater command carried out targeted actions such as assault on “enemy” anchored vessels and maritime blockades as part of their task. In the Taiwan Strait, naval vessels actively engage in the northwest, southwest, and east of Taiwan to demonstrate superior capabilities, flexibly occupy favorable positions, and pressurize opponents with high-speed advances. (WeChat Public Account/CCTV Military)

Mainland China has sufficient determination and strong capabilities to give heavy blows to the “Taiwan independence” forces every time they provoke, shaping a “new normal” conducive to stable cross-strait relations and peaceful reunification, and ensuring that the “Taiwan independence” forces and external forces are unable to “reverse” the situation and have to acknowledge the established facts caused by their unilateral provocations.

This is precisely the vivid manifestation of the mainland firmly grasping the initiative and dominance in cross-strait relations. Over the next four years, every move by Lai Ching-te, playing the “independence card,” will be an opportunity for the mainland to solidly promote peaceful development, integration, and firmly advance the process of national reunification.

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