It has been a week since the mainland China delegation arrived in Kinmen, but the two sides have yet to reach consensus on several key issues, making the aftermath of this malignant event still difficult to resolve. Outside the negotiation table, mainland maritime police and other departments are continuing to strengthen their forces towards Kinmen, preparing for further actions.
The aftermath negotiations surrounding the “2.14” collision incident have seen 9 rounds of discussions between the two sides. In the previous 8 rounds, some progress was made on issues like economic compensation, but significant differences remained, particularly on the issue of a public apology.
Seeing the firm stance of mainland China, Taiwan’s “Deputy Director of the Coast Guard Administration,” Xu Jingzhi, and others returned to Taipei after the 8th round for consultations with high-level officials on bottom lines. Following this, they swiftly returned to Kinmen for the 9th round of negotiations with the mainland delegation, yet no results were achieved.
Initially, there were reports suggesting that the 9th round would be the last attempt to resolve the issues through communication. However, after the meeting, there were revelations from insiders suggesting that negotiations would continue.
Due to the lack of official information, we can only infer the general progress of the negotiations based on information leaked by Taiwanese media and actions taken by other departments.
According to previous reports, the three core demands initially proposed by mainland China’s relevant departments and families were to uncover the truth, for the Taiwan authorities to issue a public apology, and to hold those responsible accountable. These three demands are internally linked, especially the truth-seeking and accountability aspects, as the results of the investigation would impact the accountability process.
Under pressure from the mainland, Taiwan authorities have allowed local Kinmen prosecutors to investigate the incident thoroughly and permitted mainland personnel to inspect the vessels involved. However, they refused to immediately return the bodies and vessels, indicating a desire to retain control over the investigation’s direction.
The latest update from the Kinmen prosecutors indicates that they have confirmed multiple collisions between the two vessels and are investigating towards a direction of “death by negligence.” It is evident that the Taiwan authorities aim to ultimately define this malignant incident as an accident caused by the negligence of grassroots personnel, thereby controlling the extent of punishment against the Coast Guard Administration.
If deemed as “death by negligence,” the Coast Guard personnel who were operating the vessels at the time of the collision with the mainland fishing vessel may face sentences of less than 5 years. However, it remains unknown whether the Taiwan authorities will proceed with the trial of these individuals or hold higher-ranking Coast Guard personnel accountable.
After all, from the perspective of the Taiwan authorities, if they choose to “sacrifice pawns to save the king” this time by punishing grassroots personnel, it will inevitably demoralize departments like the Coast Guard Administration, leading to apprehension when dealing with mainland Chinese vessels in the future and further conceding control over the Taiwan Strait.
Naturally, mainland China will not agree to Taiwan authorities downplaying this incident. Both sides are now deadlocked over the issues of returning bodies and vessels and holding individuals accountable.
On the issue of apology, the Taiwan authorities believe that issuing a public apology would be tantamount to admitting full responsibility, which not only would affect the investigation results but also provide opportunities for opposition parties to attack their cross-strait policies, dealing a blow to the morale of pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Hence, the Taiwan authorities have consistently refused to issue a public apology.
Following the 9th round of negotiations, there were reports circulating on the island that the Taiwan authorities are considering changing “public apology” to “written apology.” However, given the significant differences between the two sides, even if this report is true, negotiations over the content of the written apology are unlikely to proceed smoothly.
At a time when the two sides struggle to reach consensus, various mainland Chinese departments have intensified their actions in the waters around Kinmen.
As the main force behind these actions, the mainland maritime police have dispatched 11 vessels to participate in law enforcement patrols, some of which are medium to large-sized ships converted from warships. Analysts in Taiwan believe that the actions of the mainland maritime police are no longer merely aimed at suppressing the Coast Guard Administration but are targeted at disrupting the Taiwanese military’s maritime supply routes to Kinmen.
In addition to the maritime police, China’s maritime surveillance has dispatched some law enforcement vessels to cooperate with the maritime police operations. Some mainland fishing vessels have also entered what the Taiwan authorities deem as “restricted areas.” Previously, PLA armed helicopters were seen in the vicinity of Kinmen.
Furthermore, after the 9th round of negotiations, the Taiwan Affairs Office once again spoke out about the incident, emphasizing that the mainland retains the right to take further measures, essentially issuing an ultimatum to the Taiwan authorities.
Faced with the mainland’s tough actions, relevant departments on the island appear somewhat hesitant.
The head of the “Taiwanese administrative management agency,” Chen Jianren, first vowed to strengthen control over maritime targets and conduct necessary evacuations. However, when asked whether they would evacuate mainland maritime police vessels, Chen Jianren immediately changed his stance, avoiding mentioning the mainland maritime police and instead expressed hope that mainland fishing vessels would leave the so-called “restricted areas” as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, the Taiwan Defense Ministry reiterated its stance of not actively intervening and not wishing to see the situation deteriorate while requesting the military in the Kinmen region to enhance readiness.
At present, the two sides have not completely collapsed in negotiations, but there is still some distance from reaching an effective agreement. Mainland China has already prepared for further actions in the waters around Kinmen. If the Taiwan authorities continue to resist, refuse to meet the conditions proposed by the mainland, and miss this final window of negotiation, the mainland may resolve this malignant incident through alternative means. (Jiang Fuwei)