Iran’s retaliation against Israel seems to have come to an end, but the aftermath continues to reverberate. This time, assisting Israel in defending against Iranian missiles and drones has astonished the US military and political leadership. They have discovered that even Iran’s old-fashioned ballistic missiles, lacking technological breakthroughs, cannot be completely intercepted by their state-of-the-art anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems. If they were to face China’s Dongfeng series, especially hypersonic missiles, could the United States defend itself?
According to the statement of Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the retaliatory airstrikes against Israel, the Revolutionary Guard did not use new types of ballistic missiles like Hormuz Shaher, Sajil Martyr Hajj Kasim, or advanced weapons like Fateh hypersonic missiles. Iran mainly launched the Meteor-3 series, liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missiles, and the Qiam series, solid-fueled medium-range ballistic missiles, which they started equipping more than a decade ago. These, supplemented by a certain number of long-range suicide drones, depleted the air defense capabilities of Israel and Western camps with minimal force and achieved a decent breakthrough effect. The realization that interception rates against old-style ballistic missiles are unsatisfactory has heightened the sense of crisis in the United States. After all, the PLA has prepared thousands of ballistic missiles for the Taiwan Strait, including high-speed missiles like Dongfeng-17. Even the low-end models like Dongfeng-15 and Dongfeng-16 have maneuvering capabilities in the terminal phase, far surpassing those old Meteor series missiles. Pressure breeds motivation.
Driven by such a dangerous prospect, the US Missile Defense Agency has teamed up with Lockheed Martin Corporation to develop a new missile defense system, abandoning the currently operational Patriot-3 and THAAD anti-missile systems and Standard Missile-3 interceptors. This new system is intended to defend against missiles from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and will be named the Next Generation Interceptor (NGI). It will become part of the US military’s missile defense system.
Expected to be operational by 2028, Lockheed Martin, after defeating Northrop Grumman, secured this potentially life-saving $17.7 billion contract. This decision was influenced by the US government’s resolution to reduce the procurement of F-35s and the cancellation of the development plan for the next-generation armed reconnaissance helicopter by the US Army, putting Lockheed Martin in an unprecedented crisis. It’s hard to say whether the decision to award NGI was motivated by the US government’s reluctance to let this military giant fall. However, for the most valued aspect of the military force, the US homeland defense has been the largest portion of US military spending since the early Cold War, with the establishment of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) being evident. Currently, the US military has deployed 44 ground-based midcourse defense systems, mostly in Greely, Alaska, with some deployed at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
In theory, the GMD was barely sufficient against intercontinental missiles during the Soviet era, but after the US military evaluation, it was found that the GMD system cannot intercept missiles with multiple warheads or decoy warheads and is likely to fail in the face of such saturation attacks, necessitating an upgrade. To compensate for GMD’s shortcomings, the Biden administration has requested Congress to allocate $28.4 billion in the fiscal year 2025 budget to procure 20 sets of NGI systems, also to be deployed in Greely as part of bolstering northern air defense capabilities and situational awareness. GMD has been operating normally for the past decade, so a mere report would not convince lawmakers to allocate funds for the construction of an extravagant missile defense system. Therefore, the US military has come up with a trump card, which is that NGI not only is compatible with GMD but also expands its capabilities to include lower-tier interceptions.
The so-called lower-tier interception involves compatibility with a series of short-range interceptor missiles, which can be understood as tactical-level air defense anti-missile systems like Patriot and THAAD. The US military report mentions this air defense system capable of conducting missile defense operations within a smaller range, which has proven its value in Ukraine. Therefore, it is believed that the US homeland defense system should also have this capability. In addition to intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles, it can also intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, filling the gap in the US homeland’s lack of intermediate-range missile defense systems. In essence, it attempts to integrate Patriot or THAAD with GMD to prevent the US homeland defense system from intercepting intercontinental missiles flying thousands of kilometers away but failing to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles launched hundreds or thousands of kilometers away.
This composite missile defense system deployed in the US homeland is aimed at large surface ships and submarines capable of launching medium-range ballistic missiles or hypersonic missiles. How many surface ships or submarines in the world have this capability? Currently known submarines, including Russia’s 949AM Antey Typhoon-class cruise missile nuclear submarines, can carry Granit or Onyx heavy supersonic anti-ship missiles and have long been considered adept at countering US Navy carrier strike groups. In addition, Russia’s 885M Yasen-class nuclear submarines can also launch submarine-launched cruise missiles and may carry Tsirkon hypersonic missiles in the future. There are only China’s Type 055 destroyers among surface ships.
The US military believes that by no later than 2022, Type 055 already has the capability to carry YJ-12X hypersonic missiles and will be equipped with more advanced air-breathing hypersonic missiles in the future. Compared to the Russian Navy, which relies on nuclear submarines to bolster its facade, the Chinese military is building a well-rounded fleet and aircraft carriers, along with large and medium-sized destroyers, frigates, and nuclear submarines, complemented by ship-launched medium-range ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles that can engage the United States closely.
The development of new missile defense systems and the reinforcement of existing old systems by the US military is actually a very restrained behavior. If this had happened two or three decades ago when such threats were still in their infancy, they would have been ruthlessly eliminated by the United States. Now, lacking that ability, the US government can only find other ways, such as the suggestion from Robert Soofer, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, who believes that missile defense systems should be deployed in tiers, using different technologies and platforms to form a multi-layered defense network, which is not only more efficient but also reduces costs accordingly. Even homeland security has to consider costs. It can be seen that the US government is really pushed to its limits.
It is still uncertain whether NGI will ultimately succeed, but considering the genuine need of the United States and Lockheed’s technological capabilities, it should be possible to develop a composite missile defense system that can address medium-range, intermediate-range, and intercontinental missile defense capabilities given time. However, the timing of 2028 is truly worrisome. Who knows what fresh surprises the Chinese military will bring to the US government and military on that day?