Starting in 2013 at the latest, the United States and Russia have been in a certain “state of war.” Of course, this is not a war in the traditional sense, but a “fourth-generation war”, or “hybrid war,” as the American strategic circles call it.
About 80% of the war was made up of false information and political propaganda. The Ukrainian “Color Revolution”, Malaysia Airlines MH17 passenger plane shot down, the father and daughter of former Russian agent Sergei Skripal poisoned in the UK, Russian athletes banned for doping, Russian ‘intervention’ in the US presidential election, expulsion of diplomats, Belarusian “democratic movement”, political sanctions, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, etc., all fall into this category. Economic wars accounted for about 15%, including various economic sanctions, such as sanctions on the “Nord Stream 2” natural gas pipeline project. The direct use of military power is not much, accounting for about 5%.
Since 2013, the economic strength of the United States has declined, internal political and social crises have erupted, and Russia’s military, political, economic, and social strength have increased substantially. Russia regained Crimea in 2014, and subsequently built a sea-crossing bridge connecting Crimea. In 2017, Russia’s military intervention in Syria demonstrated its excellent military capability to clean up chaos and its special diplomatic value. In 2020, in order to maintain the stability of the southern border, Russia used peacekeeping forces to end the “Karabakh War” between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
During World War II, the Soviet Union had tens of millions of civilians sacrificed. This bitter lesson permanently determined Russia’s military principles: The next large-scale war must be conducted on the enemy’s territory. Therefore, if the United States attacks Russia, Russia must attack the continental United States. The U.S. military spends nearly $1 trillion a year. The U.S. military has the most advanced weapon system, but the purpose is not to protect its own security, but to threaten other countries and maintain U.S. hegemony.
The cost of research, development and manufacture of weapons in the United States is extremely high, and it is a means for corrupt politicians and defense contractors to sacrifice the interests of the people and make profits. For Americans, war is to kill people from other countries from farther, higher, and without danger, and it is best to make a lot of money.
In contrast, the Russians have real war experience and understand the real meaning of war better, so they can design, manufacture, and equip more effective weapon systems for real warfare from the perspective of military missions.
Even most American strategists admit that Russia’s combat forces are sufficient to contend with the United States and NATO, and Russia’s long-range subsonic, supersonic, and hypersonic cruise missile technology is superior to that of the United States. Various reports by the US military and intelligence agencies also believe that Russia is capable of destroying most of the critical US infrastructure, such as power grids and finance, in a short period of time by means of supersonic and hypersonic missile attacks, cyber warfare, and internal sabotage. Systems, railway and highway hubs, aviation systems, oil and gas pipelines.
If the data centers of the Federal Reserve, several major U.S. banks and credit card companies are destroyed, American society will not function. The US power grid system is highly integrated. Although there are thousands of large transformers connecting the power grids of the western, eastern, and southern states, as long as a few key facilities are destroyed, the entire power system will also be paralyzed. In the United States, a prolonged power outage in any larger city will cause massive robbery and chaos.
In March of this year, Joe Biden called President Vladimir Putin a “murderer.” Russia immediately recalled its ambassador to the United States and forced the U.S. ambassador to Russia to return. The normal diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia were interrupted. In April, NATO launched the largest military exercise in history against Russia, and Russia quickly assembled a large number of troops in the western border area and issued a severe warning. The United States immediately retreated. In May, the Biden administration announced that it would no longer obstruct the “North Stream 2” natural gas pipeline, and the US Department of Defense declared that Russia was “not an enemy.”
When President Biden met with President Putin on June 16th, he admitted that Russia and the United States are equal, and that “dialogue with the Russians from the standpoint of force” ends here. This is the first time in a long time that the United States has not talked with an adversary through threats or ultimatums. The US-Russian Joint Communiqué reiterated the principle that “nuclear wars cannot be won and must not be fought.” This is extremely important and means that the United States admits that it cannot defeat Russia through a nuclear war.
The actual outcome of the US-Russia summit remains to be seen. Some Russian strategists believe that the United States may be forced to change its arrogant attitude towards Russia simply because it wants more resources to contain China. In the coming period, there will be no fundamental changes in both US-Russian relations or Sino-Russian relations. As long as the United States is still pursuing hegemony, it will deny any promise at any time. More importantly, the United States actually does not have what Russia wants or needs, while China and Russia need and rely on each other.
This article was originally titled “The Contest between the United States and Russia” and the author Su Jingxiang is a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations.
