After the Shandong carrier entered the Western Pacific, the US Navy’s Carl Vinson carrier strike group also arrived off the coast of Japan, bringing renewed activity to the first island chain. At this time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) deployed a large-scale air and naval operation for three consecutive days, circumventing the Taiwan Strait and entering the Western Pacific to conduct real combat exercises.
According to Taiwan’s defense authorities, from the 30th to the morning of the 31st, 11 PLA aircraft and 6 PLA warships entered the Taiwan Strait. These included two J-10 fighter jets, one BZK-005 drone, and one Y-9 anti-submarine aircraft. The defense department did not have information on other aircraft types. This was just the beginning, as the scale of the PLA’s deployment would increase significantly in the following days.
On November 1st, the PLA Air Force deployed at least 37 combat aircraft to fly over the Bashi Channel towards the Western Pacific. At the same time, at least 7 warships were patrolling in the area. This formidable presence left the Taiwan authorities and military in shock. The aircraft types revealed by Taiwan included 16 J-16, 6 Su-30MKK, 2 Y-20 transport aircraft, 4 H-6K bombers, 2 KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, 1 Y-8 electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and 1 WZ-7 reconnaissance drone, among others.
From the flight path of the PLA aircraft, it was clear they bypassed Taiwan and entered the Bashi Channel, likely heading to a specific area in the Western Pacific where the Shandong carrier group had already been conducting combat patrols. In other words, the PLA had established a joint sea-air combat system deep in the Western Pacific, demonstrating formidable combat capabilities and a strong deterrent.
This urgent deployment of the Shandong carrier group occurred less than two months after its last mission in the forward sea area. The escort vessels in the group were almost identical, with one destroyer missing. These details demonstrated that the Shandong carrier group and its personnel were always on standby, ready to mobilize at a moment’s notice. In fact, the US military had previously acknowledged that the PLA Navy had the capability to deploy one aircraft carrier at sea at any time. The recent urgent deployment of the Shandong carrier once again clearly conveyed this message to the world.
The rapid deployment capability of aircraft carriers is a historic leap in the capabilities of the PLA Navy and the entire PLA. It has significant implications for the military balance in the region and globally. The emergency deployment of aircraft carriers is considered a key strategy by the US Navy to swiftly respond to regional and global situations by deploying or reinforcing carriers to maintain its power.
For example, in the recent Israel-Palestine conflict, the US Navy rapidly deployed the USS Ford aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel. Subsequently, the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group was also mobilized to head to the Mediterranean. The USS Eisenhower was on the US East Coast on October 20th, thousands of kilometers away from Israel. After receiving the order, the entire group quickly crossed the Atlantic at speeds exceeding 24 knots. Within 7 days, they reached the Strait of Gibraltar, and by the 10th day, they were near Italy. By this time, their carrier-based aircraft could already reach Israel and neighboring countries and regions with the support of aerial refueling aircraft.
There are reports that the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group will cross the Suez Canal and enter the Red Sea, ultimately reaching the Persian Gulf for close-range deterrence against Iran. Regardless of the accuracy of this information, the rapid deployment of the USS Eisenhower highlights the high mobility of carrier strike groups.
The Shandong carrier group’s recent urgent deployment also showcased its excellent mobility. After receiving orders, the Shandong carrier group quickly set sail, reaching speeds of over 20 knots. The J-15 fighter jets, developed based on the Su-33 with a combat radius of 1000 kilometers, could bring Taiwan within the operational range in less than 15 hours as the carrier group sailed east from Hainan Island. Within 48 hours, they could reach the Bashi Channel, and within 72 hours, they could bring Okinawa and US-Japan bases within their operational range.
If the Shandong carrier group sailed south, it would take just 15 hours to include Zengmu Reef, China’s southernmost territory, within the operational range of its carrier-based aircraft. Within 48 hours, they could reach the South China Sea islands. The Shandong carrier group utilized its high-speed mobility to gain a timing advantage, as the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group was concluding its deployment, and the Carl Vinson carrier strike group had not yet arrived, like a sharp sword pointing directly at the Western Pacific.
After the Shandong carrier group arrived, several other PLA naval vessel groups promptly set sail, and the PLA Air Force deployed large airborne groups to support and coordinate. Previously, the US military had speculated that the PLA might establish expeditionary forces like themselves, creating distant joint combat systems. This time, they seemed to witness the PLA’s urgent establishment of a distant joint combat system for the first time.
Expeditionary forces are a trend in the development of 21st-century military capabilities, aiming to reduce reliance on overseas bases and instead deploy combat forces from their own territory to hotspots. Due to the lack of overseas bases, the concept of expeditionary forces is more attractive to the PLA.
However, expeditionary forces, being far from the homeland, require high demands on C4IRS (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems. The US military believes that at least three space-based information systems are needed to build such a combat force, including space-based target reconnaissance and designation systems, wideband communication systems, satellite navigation and positioning systems, and more. After years of development, the PLA has already completed the construction of these three space-based information systems, providing a solid foundation for establishing a distant joint combat system.
The ability of carriers like the Shandong to be rapidly deployed is challenging for the US military. Given that the PLA can “deploy one aircraft carrier in relevant waters at any time,” adjusting US troop deployments becomes more difficult. As mentioned earlier, the urgent deployment of the Shandong carrier group disrupted the timing of US carrier rotations. In fact, this situation had already occurred in the past. If the US military has no aircraft carriers in the first island chain, and the only aircraft carriers present in the Western Pacific are those of the PLA, this would be a difficult situation for the US military to accept. (Wang Yanan)
