On January 2nd, local time, a piece of major news was revealed by the Pakistani domestic newspaper “World Echo” – on that day, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Babar, Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force, visited a Pakistani airbase to inspect the J-10CP fighter jets and TB-2 integrated reconnaissance and strike drones imported from Turkey.
During his subsequent address to the base personnel, Air Chief Marshal Babar publicly disclosed a “major announcement,” stating that the Pakistani military is prepared to procure the FC-31 “Falcon Eagle,” a foreign trade model developed by China Aviation Industry. He assured everyone that the FC-31 fighter jet would soon join the Pakistan Air Force.
Pakistan has been involved in the development of fifth-generation fighter jets for some time. In August of the previous year, we reported that a Pakistani delegation visited Turkey’s IDEF2023 International Defense Exhibition, where they explored the newly assembled TF-X fifth-generation fighter jet. The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding, designating Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) as an outsourcing unit for Turkey’s Aerospace Industries Corporation (TUSAŞ) in the TF-X program, including potential joint development and production of the TF-X fighter jet.
Concerns have been raised about Turkey’s technical capabilities in aviation technology. Unlike China’s aviation industry, which has experience in the entire process from raw material assembly to independent innovation, Turkey’s aviation industry lacks similar capabilities. While Turkey has some technological accumulations in aviation weapons, it relies heavily on the United States for major components.
Recently, there were rumors within Pakistan that an unnamed country was interested in purchasing a few FC-1 Block3 aircraft. Speculation arose that Turkey might be the buyer, intending to dissect and replicate the advanced avionics architecture. However, Turkey’s reliance on U.S.-licensed F-110-GE129 engines for the TF-X project, which could face obstacles due to U.S. restrictions, adds complexity to the situation.
Given the current geopolitical landscape, with the U.S. prioritizing relations with India for its Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China, it is unlikely that the U.S. would permit significant military advancements in Pakistan. Thus, if Turkey encounters difficulties in securing the F-110-GE129-like engines for TF-X, the U.S. may block the export of TF-X to Pakistan. Purchasing TF-X for Pakistan might involve not just acquiring the aircraft but also becoming an outsourcing partner, engaging in joint production and establishing delivery centers – ultimately, a challenging endeavor.
Air Chief Marshal Babar’s statement may also be a negotiating tactic, signaling to Turkey that Pakistan is considering alternatives and seeking better terms. China’s FC-31, initially developed as a technology demonstrator, has undergone several design iterations and is a versatile product that could seamlessly integrate into Pakistan’s air force.
From China’s perspective, maintaining a balance of power between the air forces of Pakistan and India is strategically advantageous. If Pakistan’s air force becomes too strong or too weak, it could disrupt the military equilibrium in the South Asian subcontinent. India, lacking fifth-generation fighter jets, relies on its fleet of Rafale and Su-30MKI aircraft. The J-10CP fighter jets in Pakistan’s possession are considered capable of countering India’s Su-30MKI, providing Pakistan with a qualitative edge.
In conclusion, the announcement by Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal regarding the procurement of FC-31 fighter jets should be observed with caution. Over the next three to four years, developments in this matter may provide a clearer picture.
As a staunch supporter of China, Pakistan has integrated various Chinese military equipment into its forces. While Pakistan has other fighter jets, such as the F-16 and Mirage, its latest acquisitions primarily come from China, forming a comprehensive system that includes training aircraft, fighter jets, early warning aircraft, and various missiles.
It’s reported that Indian media compared the LCA Mk1A, still under development, to the FC-31. The LCA’s lengthy development history and delayed induction into the Indian Air Force were highlighted. In contrast, the FC-31, having undergone multiple design iterations and flight demonstrations, is positioned as a more mature and versatile option for Pakistan.
Lastly, the suggestion by Indian media for India to consider purchasing F-35s from the U.S. to address the absence of fifth-generation fighters in the Indian Air Force is mentioned. The proposal, though feasible, would likely come with conditions and a high price tag, potentially affecting India’s development of its indigenous AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft). The cost factor is emphasized, citing the expensive procurement of Reaper drones by India.
