The South China Morning Post reported on July 20 that scientists at the Chinese Naval Submarine Academy are conducting a study that suggests submarines could be tasked with destroying satellites at the right time and location if national security is threatened. This includes potentially destroying satellites disguised as civilian ones, like the increasingly militarized Starlink satellites.
Report: Starlink Satellites Pose a Significant Threat; Laser Weapons Could Shoot Them Down
According to the South China Morning Post, Professor Wang Dan from the Chinese Naval Submarine Academy is involved in this research. A paper published in June in the journal *Command, Control, and Simulation* reveals that China is actively researching laser anti-satellite weapons. A submarine equipped with megawatt-class solid-state laser weapons can extend a retractable “optical mast” to fire at a satellite while remaining submerged, then retreat to deep waters, destroying the enemy satellite without leaving any evidence.
The research is driven by two main reasons: current mainstream anti-satellite weapons are too expensive to use frequently, and the sheer number of low Earth orbit internet communication constellations poses an increasing threat. Neutralizing them when necessary aligns with national security interests.
Established Anti-Satellite Methods and Cost
Currently, the most mature anti-satellite method is the direct-ascent anti-satellite missile. These missiles, launched from land or sea, accelerate via rocket engines, intersect the satellite’s trajectory, and destroy the target upon collision. China, the U.S., and Russia have all conducted anti-satellite test launches. Key dates are as follows:
– January 11, 2007: China used a Kaituozhe-1 rocket with a kinetic warhead to destroy the defunct Fengyun-1C weather satellite at an altitude of 865 km.
– February 20, 2008: The U.S. Navy’s USS Lake Erie (CG-70) fired an SM-3 missile to destroy the uncontrollable USA-193 satellite at an apogee of 365 km and a perigee of 349 km.
– November 15, 2021: Russia’s A-235 missile system test-fired and destroyed the defunct Cosmos-1408 satellite at an altitude of 645 km.
The cost of these missiles can be calculated. Most low Earth orbit communication satellites are within 1,200 km, making 1,200 km typical for anti-satellite missile range, equivalent to a 2,400 km ground target range, classifying it as a medium-range ballistic missile.
The major cost of anti-satellite missiles lies in the warhead, especially the kinetic kill vehicle, which is highly precise and costs tens of millions of dollars. For instance, the U.S. SM-3 Block 1/1A missile costs $55 million each. Even if China could produce missiles at 10% of this cost, it would still be $5 million per missile. With over 6,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, destroying them could bankrupt an adversary before significant damage is done.
The Expanding Military Use of Starlink
Starlink, initially intended for civilian communication, now sees extensive military use, notably in the Russia-Ukraine war for frontline communication, drone control, air defense coordination, and ground strike data links. Despite Russia’s desire to destroy Starlink, U.S. geopolitical influence deters them from acting.
Starlink Gen 2 can directly connect to phones, and SpaceX’s Starshield service offers satellite management, reconnaissance satellite launches, and data processing for the U.S. military. Given these developments, the South China Morning Post believes China’s development of submarine-based laser weapons is largely aimed at Starlink.
Stealth Strike Strategy
The South China Morning Post reports that this laser weapon could be installed in submarines. A megawatt-class fiber laser weapon would extend from an optical mast, attack the satellite, then retract and submerge to evade detection. Striking a satellite outside of Chinese territory, such as over the Pacific, Atlantic, or Indian Ocean, would make it difficult to attribute the attack to China.
This strategy leverages the submarine’s stealth, surfacing only for a brief ambush before submerging to another location. Using atmospheric bands invisible to the naked eye would leave no evidence, making the operation nearly perfect.
Advantages and Practicality of Laser Weapons
While laser weapons are costly to develop, their operational cost is low, making them suitable for large-scale satellite destruction, unlike anti-satellite missiles, which are limited by high costs and practical constraints.
Principles and Capabilities of Laser Weapons
Lasers, generated by stimulated emission of radiation, allow energy to be highly focused. This characteristic makes lasers ideal for military use due to their speed, precision, and difficulty to intercept.
Laser weapons, particularly solid-state and fiber lasers, have become more practical with advancements in miniaturization and power efficiency. However, the need to maintain focus on a target for a duration poses challenges, especially against fast-moving objects. Atmospheric absorption further complicates targeting satellites.
Potential Applications of Submarine-Based Laser Weapons
The research suggests that these weapons could be effective against anti-submarine aircraft optical systems and swarms of drones. While primarily intended for anti-submarine and strategic support missions, their anti-satellite capabilities are a notable, albeit discreet, feature.
In conclusion, the development of submarine-based laser weapons reflects China’s strategic intent to counter threats like Starlink, enhancing their stealth and offensive capabilities while maintaining plausible deniability.
