During a visit to Japan, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly held a U.S.-Japan summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the morning of May 23. When reporters asked him whether the United States would be willing to intervene militarily if China invaded Taiwan, Biden responded, “Yes.” He also added, “I hope that doesn’t happen and that no one will try to do that.” The reporter asked, “You are not willing to intervene militarily in the Ukraine conflict for obvious reasons, so if it comes to that, would you be willing to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan?” Biden replied, “Yes.” And reporters continued, “Are you sure?” Biden responded, “That’s the commitment we’ve made.”
This may seem confusing, because just before and after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine not long ago, Joe Biden made it clear that he would not send troops to protect Ukraine because that would bring about a terrible World War III and nuclear war. But wouldn’t getting into a conflict with China bring about nuclear war? The answer is probably “yes,” according to Chinese analyst Wang Qiang.
Some U.S. politicians, including Joe Biden, may have underestimated the Chinese Communist Party’s determination to win a war in the Taiwan Strait and that there is no turning back, as evidenced by China’s efforts to increase its military power, not only through yearly increases in military spending but also through the dedication of the entire country, especially its military industrialists.
China and Xi Jinping appear more moderate and subdued than Russia and Putin, but this is also largely a strategy. Assuming China is in Russia’s position, China will certainly not invade Ukraine lightly, but once the war starts, China will certainly take Ukraine as soon as possible at all costs with the most rigorous, reliable planning and swiftness, without committing the same fatal problem of recklessness as Russia.
Yes, the word “recklessness” has been erased from the Chinese military’s vocabulary since Mao Zedong, and China has always stressed “not to fight unprepared battles,” but this caution has often been mistaken for weakness.
What should not be overlooked is that behind this caution lies the enormous pressure on the Chinese Communist Party as the only ruling party in China for decades. For example, even though it is mired in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity rating has risen rather than fallen – let’s believe for a moment that this survey figure is true. If it were China, this would be absolutely unimaginable, just look at the accusations the Chinese Communist Party receives at home whenever the U.S. makes provocative statements.
So once a war in the Taiwan Strait starts, China has no other option but to quickly gain victory, and China will do whatever it takes to achieve that, including using nuclear weapons.
As a veteran politician, Biden could not have been ignorant of the dangerous prospect of fighting China, but why did he repeatedly make promises to defend Taiwan, in contrast to his attitude toward Russia?
This is in large part precisely because of the fear that, once mainland China restores Taiwan, the Chinese military will completely storm out of the Pacific and the United States will lose its greatest tool for containing the development of the Chinese military, as well as that of China.
Yet such containment and intimidation have instead produced an explosive growth in Chinese military power over the past two decades or so, and the biggest and most immediate goal of this growth is to defeat any adversary in a future war in the Taiwan Strait in one fell swoop.
And while China’s aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships and submarines are not all in place today, the Chinese military is confident that it can defeat U.S. forces in the Taiwan Strait. This confidence itself, even if illusory, is extremely dangerous for both the United States and China.
Thus, while it seems a big pity for the United States and its allies to give up Taiwan, the cost of defending it may be greater than anyone can imagine. Rather than suffer the consequences, Joe Biden should try to quell the anger that these provocative statements have stirred within Xi Jinping in recent years, rather than the other way around, and then elevate relations with China so as to do his best to avoid the war.
