In a recent interview conducted by China’s state-run broadcaster CCTV, two military experts, Zhang Xuefeng and Wei Dongxu, provided insights into the U.S. military’s plans to deploy land-based intermediate-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. The interview explores the potential danger signals associated with this deployment and examines how countries in the region, particularly China, should respond to this strategic move.
According to reports, the U.S. military plans to deploy land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region next year. This marks the first time the United States has deployed such weapons since the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.
**How is the Missile Performance?**
Host: Some analysts believe that the U.S. military plans to deploy a land-based missile system codenamed “Tiffany” next year, designed to launch land-based versions of the “Standard”-6 missile and “Tomahawk” cruise missile, among others. How do these two missiles perform?
Zhang Xuefeng:
Both of these missiles were originally developed by the U.S. Navy. The “Tomahawk” cruise missile is characterized by its relatively long range; U.S. media reports claim that the latest version has a range of around 1800 kilometers, and it has the advantage of lower cost. The “Standard”-6 missile was originally an anti-aircraft missile with anti-ship capabilities. Its advantage lies in its high speed, capable of targeting time-sensitive objectives.
The advantage of land-based medium-range missiles is their deployment at the forefront with the ability for immediate launch. Therefore, the U.S. land-based medium-range missiles will maintain a certain force at the forefront for an extended period, with the “Tomahawk” cruise missile as the primary weapon and the “Standard”-6 missile as a supplement.
**Where Will They Be Deployed Specifically?**
Host: There are reports that the U.S. Army may primarily deploy medium-range missile forces to Guam and seek more forward deployments in emergency situations in its Asian allies. Where exactly will the U.S. deploy medium-range missiles?
Wei Dongxu:
The deployment location follows a “1+X” pattern, where “1” refers to Guam. After deployment to Guam, a firepower warning zone can be formed around it to protect U.S. air and naval bases, covering carrier strike groups and strategic bomber units.
The “X” refers to U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and others. Although these countries have previously explicitly rejected the deployment of U.S. Army medium-range missiles within their territories, it does not mean that the U.S. military will not have the opportunity to enter the territories of allies in the future. Currently, the U.S. Army’s medium-range missile forces have not been fully formed. Once they have actual combat capabilities, the U.S. military will use various means to pressure allies through strategic interest exchanges, claiming joint training, and make every effort to place medium-range missile forces in ally territories.
Zhang Xuefeng:
If land-based medium-range missiles are deployed to Japan, its “Tomahawk” cruise missiles can cover the coastal areas of China, including many targets in the depth. If deployed to South Korea, its “Standard”-6 missiles could even cover the entire Korean Peninsula. If deployed to the northern Philippines, its “Standard”-6 missiles could cover the Bashi Channel. If deployed to the southwestern Philippines, it would pose a threat to the entire South China Sea. However, whether these countries will accept it remains to be seen, and I think Japan is a more likely candidate.
**Successive Test Cancellations?**
Host: Some analysts believe that, in addition to the “Tiffany” missile system, the U.S. Army may also deploy the “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. However, just as the U.S. Army announced plans to deploy land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, the core of the U.S. land-based medium-range missile, the “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile, was reported to have canceled tests three times in a row. According to the U.S. Army’s plan, the “Dark Eagle” was supposed to be deployed starting in 2023, but the relevant schedule has been repeatedly postponed. What does this indicate?
Zhang Xuefeng:
There are issues with the launch system of the “Dark Eagle.” Originally, this was not a major technical challenge, and it can be said that the U.S. military encountered setbacks unexpectedly. One important reason for such problems is that the U.S. military believes it lags behind China and Russia in the field of hypersonic missile development. In order to catch up, when the relevant projects were initiated, the evaluation was not very thorough, leading to frequent mishaps on minor issues.
Wei Dongxu:
Diversification and overall unreliable technical status are two “roadblocks” hindering the development of hypersonic missiles in the U.S. military. The U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Army all have their own hypersonic missile projects, and each branch may have more than one project, but none of them are mature. In fact, the development of hypersonic missiles is not particularly difficult for the United States. The reason why it has not matured is due to the U.S. military’s long-term neglect. The U.S. military overly relied on subsonic cruise missiles, favored “Tomahawk”-style cruise missiles, and as a result, the development of other missile technologies stagnated for a long time. Now it’s a rush to catch up, funds are dispersed, technology is dispersed, and talent is also dispersed.
**How to Counteract?**
Host: With the U.S. military deploying land-based medium-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, how should China and other Asia-Pacific countries guard against and counteract this?
Zhang Xuefeng:
Firstly, diplomatic work needs to be done well. Regarding potential deployment locations, we should make it clear to relevant countries that accepting this system is highly sensitive, letting them know it’s challenging and encouraging them to back off. At the same time, we need to be prepared militarily. On one hand, we need to defend against it. The advantage of this system lies in its ability to launch at any time, so we need to monitor and surveil it, ensuring early warning and interception. On the other hand, we need to develop targeted strike capabilities to ensure that its first launch becomes its last. The political significance of the U.S. move outweighs the military significance; the number of missiles it can deploy to relevant countries is limited. The Chinese military is fully capable of intercepting it and effectively responding.
