On March 21, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Boeing had secured a contract to develop the F-47 “Next Generation Air Dominance” (NGAD) fighter, intended to replace fifth-generation aircraft and expected to be deployed in the Indo-Pacific region within the next decade. Regarding the capability gap between Chinese and American sixth-generation fighters, Zhang Xiaodong, an associate researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, published a military commentary on *Tencent News* on the 25th, analyzing the similarities and differences between the two sides in terms of development progress, stealth capabilities, weapon configurations, and technological philosophies.
Zhang Xiaodong pointed out that the U.S. sixth-generation fighter has only completed the signing of its development contract, with technical R&D yet to officially begin. “The U.S. military has only awarded Boeing the development contract; the actual development work hasn’t started yet, and there’s still a long way to go.” In contrast, China already has two sixth-generation fighter prototypes that have undergone test flights, indicating a lead in progress.
The U.S. Air Force previously estimated the development cost of the sixth-generation fighter at $250 to $300 million per unit, equivalent to two or three F-35 fighters. Meanwhile, some U.S. media reported that the total projected value of the F-47 program exceeds $20 billion. Zhang Xiaodong commented that, given the U.S. military-industrial system’s history of “constant adjustments and price hikes” during the F-35 development process, “the road to this sixth-generation fighter will be fraught with twists and turns.”
Regarding Trump’s claim that the experimental version of the F-47 has been secretly test-flown for nearly five years, Zhang Xiaodong also questioned its credibility. He noted that U.S. media had reported on NGAD prototype test flights as early as 2020, but that model was subsequently abandoned. “Boeing only signed the contract this year—how could it have been test-flown for five years? Trump is playing psychological games; it’s impossible for a flight to go unnoticed for five years.”
Zhang Xiaodong further pointed out that China’s sixth-generation fighter’s supporting weapon systems are gradually taking shape. Recently, China successfully test-fired a hypersonic air-to-air missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers and a speed of Mach 9 over Inner Mongolia, which may eventually be equipped on the J-36 fighter. He speculated that the missile employs a two-stage propulsion mode, first using a turbojet engine to reach the edge of the atmosphere before diving at hypersonic speed to strike its target—”even if detected, there’s no escape.” Zhang quipped that, by comparison, “no one has seen any new advanced missiles for the U.S. sixth-gen fighter.”
On the other hand, regarding the F-47’s canard and twin-engine design, Zhang Xiaodong pointed out that these technologies have long been widely used in Chinese fighter designs, “which actually gives Chinese people grounds to mock the U.S. for stealing designs.” He criticized the West for long accusing Chinese fighters of copying, while now the U.S. sixth-gen design incorporates Chinese elements. “Now, aren’t the Americans copying China’s canard design? How do they explain that?”
He also noted that while China previously adopted twin-engine designs due to limitations in engine technology, the improved technology has now turned this into an advantage. Using the J-35 as an example, he pointed out that its twin-engine design offers higher battlefield survivability and mission readiness rates compared to the single-engine F-35.
Additionally, Zhang Xiaodong questioned the U.S. military’s decision to retain a manned format for its sixth-generation fighter. He argued that, theoretically, sixth-gen fighters should have the capability to “switch to unmanned mode” while also deploying loyal wingman drones. The Chinese Air Force’s J-20 has already achieved coordinated operations with loyal wingmen, whereas the U.S. has yet to disclose similar information.
Zhang Xiaodong stated that full unmanned operation still carries risks, as “unmanned main fighters are not yet mature.” He cited the example of Iran capturing a U.S. drone, as well as Russia’s fifth-generation Su-57 fighter using unmanned wingmen over Ukraine, which were interfered with and shot down—”marking the first instance of a fifth-gen fighter deploying and then destroying its own wingmen.”
