Some Taiwan military experts said Taiwan would have to fight alone if a military conflict breaks out between Taiwan and mainland China, although the United States is expected to provide Taiwan with weapons and other assistance, according to Chinese media, as reported by Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post on April 11.
It is believed that the hearing held by the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday (April 7) seems to prove this point. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the best defense against Taiwan is for the Taiwanese to do it themselves.
Milley said at the hearing that the best deterrent to China is to “make sure that China [the mainland] knows that if they were to attack Taiwan, it would be a very, very difficult target to capture.”
Milley said the United States needs to assist Taiwan in defending itself, but “the best defense for Taiwan is for the Taiwanese to do it themselves. We can certainly assist them, for example, as we did in Ukraine. There are many lessons in this that China is taking very seriously as well.”
At a seminar in Taipei on Thursday (April 7), analysts said the war in Ukraine has taught Taiwan that even a small country can defend itself against an invasion by a much larger one.
But these analysts noted that the events in Ukraine also showed Taiwan that the United States would never send troops to help it fight the People’s Liberation Army.
They agree that the likelihood of the United States sending troops to help Taiwan is virtually nil, and that the White House has refused to send troops to help Ukraine, promising only arms and other assistance.
According to Luo Qingsheng, executive director of the Taiwan Institute for International Strategy, a Taipei-based think tank, U.S. President Joe Biden has refused to send troops to Ukraine on the grounds that such a move would trigger a world war. The same would be true for China, since all three countries – China, the United States and Russia – possess nuclear weapons.
According to Luo Qingsheng, “By that logic, the United States is unlikely to send troops to help Taiwan if a conflict breaks out between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
Luo Qingsheng noted that the U.S. has provided Ukraine with only simple weapons, as well as intelligence and satellite communications assistance. This has not only helped Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, but has also brought NATO allies closer to the United States and significantly weakened Russia’s power through international sanctions.
According to Luo Qingsheng, the United States is the biggest winner of the war in Ukraine. It is clear that the U.S. will adopt this model to aid Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait conflict.
Huang Jiezheng, associate professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, also points out that the experience of Ukraine tells Taiwan that, in reality, the U.S. will not send troops to help Taiwan.
Wang Kun-yi, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Taiwan, said at the seminar that the war in Ukraine has taught the Taiwanese public that the United States is unlikely to send troops to help Taiwan and that Taiwan must rely on itself in the event of war.
