North Korea is about to equip itself with solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), marking a significant improvement in its nuclear deterrence capabilities. The country has announced the forthcoming deployment of the “Hwaseong-18” ICBM, which will become North Korea’s first solid-fueled ICBM. Once operational, this new missile system will bring significant changes to North Korea’s nuclear weapons structure, substantially enhancing its capabilities for actual combat and deterrence.
According to reports from North Korean state media, on the 12th of the month, North Korea conducted a test launch of the “Hwaseong-18” ICBM, which was referred to as the “core weapon system” of its strategic armed forces. Since its initial appearance in February of this year, the “Hwaseong-18” has drawn considerable attention from the international community. So, what are the missile’s capabilities, and what does it mean for North Korea?
Preliminary analysis of the “Hwaseong-18” missile’s performance reveals that during this test launch, the missile’s first stage followed a standard ballistic trajectory, while the second and third stages used a lofted trajectory. The missile reached an altitude of over 6,000 kilometers, traveled a distance of 1,001.2 kilometers, and had a flight time of approximately 4,491 seconds before accurately landing in the target area in the East Sea of Korea.
The reports suggest that this test demonstrated the capabilities, reliability, and military utility of the new strategic weapon system, validating the credibility of North Korea’s nuclear strategic armed forces. As planned, North Korea’s strategic armed forces are poised to be equipped with the “Hwaseong-18” ICBM weapon system.
This was the second test launch of the “Hwaseong-18” missile. The first test in April had not publicly disclosed its flight data, leading to speculations. According to South Korean military tracking data, the previous test had a horizontal flight distance of 1,000 kilometers, with a maximum altitude of less than 3,000 kilometers. Based on these estimates, the missile’s range was only about 6,000 kilometers, falling short of the standard for an intercontinental ballistic missile and not as capable as North Korea’s previous “Hwaseong-15/17” tests. However, the latest reports explained that the first test’s trajectory was limited for security reasons, considering the safety of neighboring countries and multi-stage separation during flight. The test employed a standard ballistic trajectory for the first stage and lofted trajectories for the second and third stages, with a delayed separation start to limit the missile’s maximum speed and verify various technical aspects of the weapon system.
The recent test followed the same trajectory as the previous one, using a combination of standard ballistic and lofted trajectories to ensure security during flight. Based on this explanation, it is possible that the initial test did not achieve intercontinental range due to technical reasons.
According to estimates by South Korean intelligence agencies, the “Hwaseong-18” missile is approximately 20 meters long, with a maximum diameter of about 2 meters. Its first stage likely uses North Korea’s latest solid-fueled rocket engine with a thrust of 140 tons. In December of the previous year, North Korean official media reported a successful ground ignition test of a high-powered solid-fueled rocket engine with thrust vector control technology, with a thrust of 140 tons. The second and third stages of the missile are slightly smaller, with diameters between 1.6 to 1.8 meters. The warhead shape is somewhat similar to the olive-shaped warhead of Russia’s “Yars” missile, rather than the pointed bullet-like shape of the “Hwaseong-15/17,” providing ample internal space for multiple warheads or more penetration devices. Based on the flight data released by North Korea, the “Hwaseong-18” missile’s maximum range exceeds 12,000 kilometers, capable of covering a significant portion of the continental United States.
The “Hwaseong-18” missile is a road-mobile missile launched from a 9-axle wheeled transport-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle, providing strong off-road capabilities. The missile is stored within the launch canister, a strategic missile launching system consisting of an inner tube, thermal insulation, temperature control, and other components. This system serves to protect the missile during transportation and participate in the launch process. The missile can be stored safely inside the canister, which is designed to withstand the recoil and impact forces generated during launch, ensuring the missile remains in a controlled and dry environment. With its solid-fueled rocket engine, the missile can be rapidly launched.
The introduction of solid-fueled ICBMs represents a significant change in North Korea’s land-based nuclear forces. North Korea initiated its intercontinental missile program after the end of the Cold War, successfully developing liquid-fueled ICBMs initially. In July 2017, the “Hwaseong-14” missile was successfully test-launched, with an estimated range of over 6,000 kilometers. In November 2017, North Korea conducted its first test of the “Hwaseong-15” ICBM, which the United States assessed to have a range exceeding 12,000 kilometers, covering most areas of the continental United States. In March 2022, North Korea tested the “Hwaseong-17” new-generation ICBM, with a maximum range of over 15,000 kilometers and the ability to carry multiple warheads.
Compared to liquid-fueled engines, solid-fueled engines offer advantages such as simplicity of design, high thrust, and long-term storage capability. Due to not requiring fueling before launch, solid-fueled ICBMs have a shorter response time and higher survivability. As a result, most advanced road-mobile ICBMs in the world utilize solid-fueled rocket engines. This fact highlights that North Korea has become one of the few countries capable of developing advanced road-mobile ICBMs, with its missile technology even surpassing that of India.
In the past, North Korea’s “Hwaseong-15/17” liquid-fueled ICBM launches were typically conducted from concrete pads near airport runways or factory buildings, requiring specific and vulnerable launch sites. Consequently, these missiles were mainly stored in large underground facilities during peacetime and deployed from those sites during wartime, relying on precise measurements and technical support to ensure successful launches. The launch pads were constructed with thick concrete to withstand the missile’s recoil and impact forces. However, the recent test of the “Hwaseong-18” missile took place on grassland, indicating the adoption of an unattached launch method.
The unattached field launch technology has been a subject of discussion in recent years. It is employed in the new generation of Chinese missiles, such as the DF-21C, DF-26, and DF-41, arousing public interest. The concept was initially explored by the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1970s for land-based ICBMs. With this technology, missile-launching vehicles can move and launch the missiles without relying on predetermined launch sites. The launch site does not need prior preparation, and the vehicle can stop and launch the missile at any point during its mobility. This launch method enables concealed preparation and quick launches in complex terrain or limited space.
For North Korea, the faster response time of the “Hwaseong-18” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) provides a more reliable “second-strike” nuclear capability. In terms of the deployment strategy, the country can choose to store the missiles in underground bunkers or tunnels during peacetime. In times of high alert, once receiving a launch order, the missiles can quickly be mobilized from their storage facilities, allowing for swift organization of nuclear strikes in the vicinity of the bunkers. Another option is to deploy the missiles from the bunkers and conduct extensive maneuvers to enhance survivability, enabling the capability to execute nuclear strikes within a short timeframe.
To expedite the missile’s deployment, North Korea may conduct multiple test launches of the “Hwaseong-18” missile in the future. The future structure of North Korea’s land-based strategic nuclear forces is expected to be centered around the “Hwaseong-18” as the primary missile, with the “Hwaseong-15/17” as secondary components of the equipment system. This enhancement in nuclear actual combat capability and deterrence will also provide the country with a certain level of “second-strike” nuclear capability.
