As US and Chinese aircraft carriers both enter the West Pacific again, activity in the First Island Chain heats up. The front page of the Japanese Joint Staff website is once more filled with news about the movements of PLA aircraft and warships. From the 26th to the 30th, six reports have been made consecutively. Meanwhile, the USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group has quietly arrived off Japan, correspondingly distant from the USS Reagan Carrier operating in the South China Sea.
On the 26th, US and Chinese navy carriers historically met at the Strait of Malacca; the Shandong fleet moved from west to east through the strait into the West Pacific. In contrast, the Reagan Carrier Strike Group journeyed from east to west through the strait, entering the South China Sea. This historical moment was captured by satellites. With the Reagan looking for presence in the South China Sea, bolstering the Philippines’ military morale, the Shandong’s entry into the West Pacific not only acts as a deterrent to Taiwan but also practices simulated strikes on Guam. Both US and Chinese militaries can be described as “each doing their own thing” in a match of equals.
However, the arrival of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group disrupted the balance. This strike group, which left San Diego on October 12th, never disclosed its exact deployment plan and arrived off Japan on the 30th. Publicly available information indicates that the CMV-22B “Osprey” aircraft assigned to the Carl Vinson have already reached Japan. The Carl Vinson and the Reagan in the South China Sea essentially sandwich the Shandong fleet.
The arrival of the Carl Vinson is a variable. The escort ships for this carrier strike group include four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers: the USS Hopper (DDG-70), USS Kidd (DDG-100), USS Sterett (DDG-104), and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG-110). In contrast, the Eastern Fleet consists of only two 052D destroyers, the Guilin and the Changsha, and two 054A frigates, the Xuchang and the Huangshan. In terms of numbers of escort ships, the Shandong fleet matches the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, but falls short in terms of tonnage and combat power.
Furthermore, we need to ascertain the Carl Vinson’s current status, intentions, and exact location. Is the US military planning to coordinate the Carl Vinson with the Reagan? Or will they rotate them, allowing the Reagan to return to port for maintenance? Given this scenario, between the 28th and 30th of October, the PLA had three squadrons pass through the Ryukyu Islands strait into the West Pacific.
Firstly, on October 28th, the No. 799 electronic reconnaissance ship passed through the Miyako Strait into the West Pacific. Based on its trajectory, this reconnaissance ship will enter the area where the Shandong fleet operates. Still, it might not operate with the fleet. It is more likely to operate independently, collecting data on US and Japanese naval activities.
Then, from the 29th to the 30th, a squadron composed of the Type 055 destroyer Nanchang, the Type 903 replenishment ship Kokoxili Lake, and the No. 795 electronic reconnaissance ship entered the West Pacific through the Amami Strait. Given their northern location and their composition, they seem designed for long-range navigation. However, there’s also the possibility that after the No. 795 enters the West Pacific, it will operate independently, possibly even circumnavigating the main Japanese islands to gather electronic intelligence. Meanwhile, the Nanchang and the Kokoxili Lake could be on a mission to scout and monitor the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group, to keep them in check and ascertain the Vinson’s movements and intentions.
Lastly, on October 30th, a small squadron composed of the 052D destroyer Tangshan and the 054A frigate Weifang entered the West Pacific through the Miyako Strait. Given their direction corresponds with the Shandong’s, it’s evident that the Tangshan and Weifang are reinforcing the Shandong fleet. Together, a destroyer and a frigate can significantly enhance the fleet’s air defense and anti-submarine capabilities.
Currently, the Reagan is operating off the coast of the Philippines. It might soon approach islands controlled by China, looking for confrontations—a traditional tactic of the US Navy. The main aim of the Reagan’s presence is to bolster the spirits of the Philippines. In the coming period, Philippine coast guard vessels, and even their navy, might challenge Chinese ships. The waters around Ren’ai Reef, Huangyan Island, and Zhongye Island are all possible flashpoints, with Ren’ai Reef being the most likely, especially since the “Madre Mountain” landing ship is nearing the end of its operational life.
Regardless of whether the Carl Vinson docks in Japan directly or circles in the West Pacific around the Shandong fleet, it poses significant challenges for the PLA. If the Carl Vinson stays around the First Island Chain longer and the Reagan isn’t recalled, the US Navy will briefly have an advantage in carrier presence. After all, the Liaoning’s upgrade is still underway, the Fujian won’t be commissioned for another two years, and currently, the PLA only has the Shandong available.
A few days ago, the US Navy made significant moves when seven nuclear-powered aircraft carriers set sail simultaneously. Two in the Mediterranean, two in the West Pacific, one off the East Coast, and one off the West Coast, showcasing their impressive carrier strength. The US Navy currently has eleven active-duty carriers and plans to maintain this number for the next decade. Seven carriers deploying simultaneously is a rare event. Typically, only 2-3 carriers are deployed, with four being a unique situation.
On the 27th and 28th, the Lincoln and Roosevelt carriers, which were operating off the US West Coast, have returned to San Diego port. They spent one or two days at sea. It’s unclear whether this was a brief test voyage after an extended port stay or simply a unique event with seven carriers sailing simultaneously as requested by the navy’s top brass.
For the PLA, the threat posed by US Navy carriers remains significant. Deploying one carrier in the First Island Chain for an extended period, two for shorter durations, and suddenly reinforcing with a third are all possibilities. Judging by the Carl Vinson’s crossing of the Pacific, which took about 18 days, this duration could further reduce to about two weeks in wartime.
Understanding the deployment patterns and operational methods of US Navy carriers is crucial when considering the potential for conflicts in the Taiwan Strait in the future. More importantly, is the development of the PLA’s carrier force. If we have three or even more active carriers, we can better address the deployment and movements of US carriers. (Wang Yanan)
