Shortly after the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the US quickly dispatched the aircraft carrier strike group centered around the USS Ford to support Israel. However, observers noted that the USS Ford strike group mainly operated in the distant waters of the Eastern Mediterranean and did not approach the Israeli coast, seemingly wary of something. Moreover, the USS Eisenhower strike group is also en route, but even with two carrier strike groups, the US Navy still avoids the Israeli coast due to ongoing threats from the shore.
A likely threat to the USS Ford strike group could be anti-ship missiles from Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to sources, Hezbollah has at least two types of anti-ship missiles: the Iranian-made Noor subsonic missile and the Russian-exported Yakhont supersonic missile. The Noor has a range of 150 km, while the Yakhont’s range reaches 300 km.
Based on the movement trajectory of the USS Ford strike group, the caution against these shore-based missiles seems justified, as US ships have consistently stayed beyond 300 km, out of the Yakhont missile’s range.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah has long received strong support from Iran and effectively controls southern Lebanon. They have frequently clashed with Israel since the early 1980s. To counter the Israeli Navy, Hezbollah has acquired some coastal missiles to ensure coastal security.
The origin of the Noor missile is evident – it’s from Iran. The Yakhont is more complex. Russia has never exported this supersonic heavy anti-ship missile to Lebanon, Hezbollah, or Iran. However, neighboring Syria has made such purchases. Therefore, it’s believed that the Yakhonts in Hezbollah’s possession were provided by the Syrian government, and their numbers are limited.
The Noor missile is an Iranian copy of China’s C802 anti-ship missile. In the 1990s, Iran imported the C802 missile from China. Seeing its advanced technology and excellent performance, Iran not only imported the C802 en masse but also began producing its own version, naming it “Noor”. It has since become the primary missile in Iran’s arsenal, with various versions developed.
During Syria’s civil war, the Syrian government forces faced opposition from rebel groups and extremist factions. Hezbollah, in collaboration with Iran, stepped in, sending elite forces to support the Syrian government, playing a vital role. In return, the Syrian government provided Hezbollah with some Yakhont missiles. With a range of 300 km, the Yakhont poses a significant threat to the Israeli Navy and can also target deep inside Israeli territory.
It’s worth noting that not only has Iran supplied these missiles to Middle Eastern armed groups, but they have also helped establish a comprehensive anti-ship combat system. In 2006, while enforcing a blockade off the Lebanese coast, the Israeli Navy’s INS Hanit was struck by a Noor missile, hitting its stern, destroying the hangar and a helicopter, resulting in four casualties.
Iran, in addition to equipping itself with the Noor missile, also exported it to its Middle East allies. Beyond Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen also received Noor missiles. The Houthis used the Noor to target a Saudi naval ship and severely damaged an Emirati high-speed transport ship. They even challenged a US Navy destroyer when, in 2016, the USS Mason, near Houthi-controlled areas, faced an attack from a Noor missile. Although the Mason employed countermeasures to thwart the missile, it was a close call for the US Navy.
From these instances, it’s clear that while the Noor might not be the most advanced missile, it remains a significant threat. The fact that Hezbollah possesses such missiles means they could target entities in the Eastern Mediterranean. The USS Ford’s mission wasn’t combat, but to show support for Israel and deter Arab nations. Therefore, their caution is understandable.
While the USS Ford is today’s most advanced aircraft carrier, breaking through a carrier group’s defense with just a few Yakhont missiles is far-fetched.
Given the limitations in Hezbollah’s surveillance capabilities, they would struggle to detect the carrier strike group beyond 300 km, largely relying on high-altitude cruise patterns for their missiles to auto-target. Considering the Yakhont missile’s size and weight, it’s likely that the Aegis Combat System would detect and intercept it. With at least four Aegis-equipped ships for protection, a surprise Yakhont attack seems unlikely.
From the US Navy’s perspective, the real concern isn’t so much the threat of the Yakhont missile. The actual worry is a potential escalation. If the USS Ford got too close to Lebanon and Hezbollah mistakenly launched a missile, it would create a dilemma. If the US didn’t retaliate, it would appear weak. If it did, it could escalate the conflict, dragging Israel into a two-front war, forcing the US to increase its intervention.
Currently, the US’s main objective is to support Ukraine, trying to bog down Russia in an endless conflict. In the long term, the US is shifting its focus to the Asia-Pacific to contain China. Given this, the US isn’t keen on committing too much in the Middle East, evident by the absence of a permanent aircraft carrier deployment in the Indian Ocean.
Thus, we see the US Navy sending the USS Ford strike group to support Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean, but with caution, staying clear of the Israeli coast. This approach reflects the complex considerations of the US military strategy.
Source: Wang Yanan
