The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier has secretly sailed into the East China Sea. In the “First Island Chain Chaos” triggered by the U.S.-Canada-South Korea naval exercises in the Yellow Sea in September, the U.S. failed to deploy a carrier. Instead, they merely showcased the USS America, an amphibious assault ship, providing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with an excellent opportunity to display their maritime and aerial prowess, significantly deterring the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Canada. Now, with the U.S. carrier’s readiness restored, what’s their intention in the East China Sea?
Foreign media, based on satellite images, reported that the USS Ronald Reagan has entered the East China Sea, moving within the First Island Chain. The timing coincides with escalating tensions in the Middle East and the resurgence of the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading some to suspect that the Reagan might be planning some actions.
While these concerns are valid, they might be somewhat unfounded. The Reagan had recently undergone maintenance in Yokosuka by the end of September. After its current deployment, it is slated to return to the U.S. for extensive repairs. Given this context, it is unlikely that the Reagan is currently on a high-intensity confrontational mission, especially considering the carrier’s current condition.
From late September to early October, Japan recorded as many as nine delays in the Reagan’s departure, indicating potential onboard system malfunctions or unsatisfactory repair progress. Rumors about nuclear leaks from the Reagan were also circulating, but no authoritative reports or reliable sources have confirmed these claims.
Following its departure, the Reagan mainly operated in the waters off Ryukyu and the Philippine Sea. On October 4, it conducted minor exercises with the USS Antietam, a cruiser, and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force ships in the Philippine Sea, signaling a return to operational capacity.
There are two primary reasons for the Reagan’s venture into the East China Sea. First, it’s evading typhoons. Japan has recently been battered by typhoons causing significant damage. Although the Reagan, a 100,000-ton nuclear-powered carrier, can withstand strong typhoons, it typically avoids them for the safety of onboard aircraft and equipment. And for such routine actions to avoid typhoons, China doesn’t seem to be overreacting or drawing unnecessary conclusions; they appear to be observing the situation with detachment.
Secondly, the Reagan’s move to the East China Sea is also aimed at visiting South Korea. According to the Korean news agency, the carrier is scheduled to dock in Busan from the 12th to the 16th of this month, marking the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and reinforcing the two countries’ commitment to “extended deterrence.”
Considering North Korea’s recent activities, such as the launch of new nuclear-powered submarines and frequent missile tests, South Korea feels the need for a decisive counter. A show of force, symbolized by the arrival of the Reagan, is meant to bolster South Korea’s morale and military posture.
However, the Reagan’s current deployment within the First Island Chain has inadvertently highlighted the awkward reality of the U.S. Navy. With a limited number of deployable carriers, and the USS Gerald R. Ford being dispatched to the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel, the U.S. had no choice but to deploy the Reagan, even in its pre-repair state. This intense usage will lead to longer repair and maintenance durations in the future, further reducing the number of available carriers.
The U.S. Navy has previously considered retiring two Nimitz-class carriers ahead of schedule to save costs and allocate funds for the more advanced Ford-class carriers. Still, Congress opposed this, resulting in only the first ship of the Nimitz class, the USS Nimitz, being on the retirement list.
The U.S. Navy has admitted to a shortfall in active carrier numbers, with all six carriers on the East Coast at one point being non-operational. This lack of available carriers has led to large gaps in key maritime zones, such as the Indian Ocean, where the U.S. Navy has ceased its routine deployments, culminating in the Middle East situation spiraling out of U.S. control.
In essence, the era of the U.S. Navy intimidating globally with just one or two carriers has ended. With the PLA’s enhanced long-range strike capabilities, they now have the ability to detect and strike targets beyond the First Island Chain. Adm. Samuel Paparo of the U.S. Pacific Fleet once admitted his concerns about the PLA Rocket Force’s capability to strike carriers 3,000 kilometers away.
The U.S. Navy also believes that the PLA has deployed at least three space satellite systems to support anti-ship ballistic missile operations. Combined with the PLA Navy’s own carrier groups and the PLA Air Force’s arsenal, it’s no wonder the U.S. Navy is hesitant to send carriers into the First Island Chain.
In conclusion, as the U.S. power wanes, maintaining global dominance becomes increasingly difficult. This decline is evident in the stretched state of the U.S. Navy.
Source: Wang Yanan
