In a covert operation over 30 days, three fleets of the Chinese Navy have established a comprehensive network in the South China Sea. Open-source intelligence reveals that the Chinese Navy is deploying a large combat group, led by a 055-type 10,000-ton destroyer, consisting of nine ships, to conduct high-intensity drills focused on air defense and anti-submarine warfare.
In the past month, at least three similarly sized fleets have conducted combat exercises and patrol missions in the South China Sea. These operations demonstrate the overall strength of the modern Chinese Navy, with Taiwanese experts noting, “Within the first island chain, there is no rival. Even the arrival of a US aircraft carrier would be ineffective.”
Recently, tensions in the South China Sea have been reignited due to ongoing provocations and influences from the United States. Despite the conclusion of the US-Philippines joint exercise “Balikatan-24,” the situation has not stabilized. In response, the Chinese Navy’s Southern Theater Command has once again deployed surface ship formations in the South China Sea for real combat exercises to maintain peace and stability in the region.
The reason for these exercises is clear: although the drills have ended, US-deployed missiles, aircraft, and warships in the Philippines remain. Notably, the US Army’s Typhon mid-range missile system, despite the outdated performance of its Tomahawk cruise missiles, still poses a theoretical threat to China’s southern inland regions due to its 1,600 km range, warranting vigilance from the Chinese Navy’s Southern Theater Command.
Moreover, the US Navy’s Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group has been highly active in the South China Sea. Last week, the USS Halsey illegally entered the territorial waters of the Xisha Islands and was expelled after a standoff with Chinese naval surface ships. Clearly, the end of “Balikatan-24” does not signify the end of US provocations in the South China Sea. Instead, it marks the beginning of continued efforts to escalate tensions. To counter this, the Chinese Navy must enhance its military presence in the South China Sea to respond to US deployments in the Western Pacific.
This explains why a large-scale combat group, including one 055-type destroyer, three 052D-type destroyers, three 054A-type frigates, and two 903-type supply ships, was mobilized for the current exercises. Excluding aircraft carriers, the scale of this training fleet already surpasses the escort fleet of the Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group. The total number of vertical launch systems (VLS) on the four destroyers alone amounts to 304, and combined with the three 054A frigates, the fleet’s total firepower reaches 400 VLS cells plus 24 YJ-83 anti-ship missiles.
This high-intensity firepower is enough to keep the Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group on edge. Moreover, the Pentagon is likely concerned that the Chinese Navy has deployed two similarly sized combat fleets in the South China Sea over the past month. For example, the Type 055 Dalian led a fleet in the South China Sea in early May, while the Type 055 Xianyang undertook a similar mission in late April.
Considering that the Roosevelt re-entered the South China Sea around late April, it is reasonable to believe that from the moment the Roosevelt entered the region, the Chinese Navy’s Southern Theater Command began 24/7 surveillance with surface ship formations centered around Type 055 destroyers.
This is bad news for the Pentagon, as larger ships require more maintenance. US aircraft carriers may be deployed for seven to eight months but need a year or two in port for maintenance. To avoid significantly impacting naval combat capabilities, most countries stagger the maintenance of large ships through rotational deployments, as seen with US aircraft carriers.
However, in the operations targeting the Roosevelt, the Southern Theater Command deployed three of its four Type 055 destroyers for combat missions within just one month. This demonstrates the excellent maintenance capabilities of the Southern Theater Command and supports Taiwanese experts’ claims that the Chinese Navy is “unmatched within the first island chain, and even a US carrier would be ineffective.”
The Type 055’s performance is just the tip of the iceberg in showcasing the Chinese Navy’s maintenance capabilities, which are part of a well-functioning overall naval system. The maintenance issues faced by the US Navy with its carriers reflect broader systemic imbalances within the US Navy. Conversely, the Type 055’s maintenance performance indicates the smooth operation of the Chinese Navy’s entire system.
Thus, the current US Navy not only faces tactical disadvantages in the South China Sea but also strategic disadvantages in the long term. These issues cannot be resolved merely by deploying more carriers to the South China Sea or enhancing military threats against China by stationing more Typhon missiles in the Philippines. Instead, a comprehensive overhaul of the entire US Navy system is required, which exceeds the capabilities of the Pentagon and the willingness of Washington’s leadership to bear the costs. Consequently, the Chinese Navy will continue to maintain its current advantages in the South China Sea in the foreseeable future.
