After over 100 days of anchoring near the Xianbin Jiao, the AIS (Automatic Identification System) signal of Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9701, which had been subjected to strong enforcement actions by China, has disappeared, making it impossible to determine the vessel’s exact location.
On August 31, at least one Chinese vessel entered the shoal, accompanied by three large tugboats (including the 5,000-ton Nanhai Jiu 116 rescue tug and two 2,600-horsepower Nantuo 175/185 tugs), three Coast Guard ships (the 5205 equipped with a 76mm naval gun, along with vessels 3104 and 4303), and a large deep-sea fishing vessel. Together, they entered the lagoon area of the shoal.
It is evident that the China Coast Guard and the Chinese Navy jointly conducted a clearing operation against the Philippine Coast Guard vessel that had maliciously lingered at the shoal.
Currently, the Philippine Coast Guard vessel 9701 has turned off its AIS signal, while China’s large deep-sea tug, Nanhai Jiu 116, has departed the shoal. This suggests that the probability of the Philippine vessel being expelled is high—either the Philippine vessel left on its own, or it deliberately turned off its AIS signal to avoid revealing its location and embarrassing their Coast Guard spokesperson.
Despite the Philippine side’s tough rhetoric that the 9701 vessel “will never retreat” and will continue to operate in the South China Sea (without specifically mentioning Ren’ai Jiao), the overwhelming power disparity between China and the Philippines suggests that the latter’s failure is inevitable.
