According to reports from Russia’s Satellite News Agency, between October 7th and 13th, Russian forces launched large-scale attacks on Ukrainian forces in various directions, eliminating approximately 5,300 Ukrainian soldiers within a week. Taking advantage of the Middle Eastern Israel-Palestine conflict, Russia seized the opportunity for a sudden strike on Ukraine. As a result, territories previously reclaimed by Ukraine during its “Summer Offensive” changed hands again.
As Israel gears up for a major confrontation in the Middle East, there’s a high possibility the Arab League might intervene. The US aircraft carriers have already entered the Mediterranean as a show of strength. With Ukraine continuously retreating in the east, the situation looks dire. At this crucial juncture, will the U.S. continue to support Ukraine or prioritize safeguarding Israel?
Israel is raising the stakes: U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s trip to the Middle East isn’t just for posturing, but for peace mediation. On October 7th, a surprise attack from Hamas caught Israel off guard. Within hours, over 5,000 rockets were launched at southern Israel, effectively incapacitating Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. Hamas’ multifront attack resulted in significant Israeli casualties, including the capture of Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni.
Israel retaliates fiercely: Having been caught off guard, Israel soon retaliated with airstrikes on Gaza, causing extensive damage. In the subsequent days, Israel took multiple measures to counteract the attacks:
- October 8: Israel’s Energy Department announces cutting off electricity to Gaza.
- October 9: Israel’s Defense Minister states they will “completely blockade” Gaza.
- October 9: Israeli fighter jets launch intensive bombings on Gaza City.
- October 9: Gaza’s Health Department reports 687 deaths and 3,726 injuries from Israeli attacks. Israeli media reports over 900 Israeli deaths from the recent conflict.
- October 10-11: Israel continues its bombing campaign in Gaza.
- October 12: Israeli air forces conduct extensive airstrikes on Gaza.
The Gaza Strip, a narrow region along the Mediterranean coast, has a population of around 2.4 million people. Historically, much of the region was Palestinian territory, but over the last 70 years, with U.S. support, a significant portion has become Israeli land.
The current situation mirrors the policies European colonizers employed in North America, annihilating the indigenous populations to occupy land. The Gaza Strip is described by some as an open-air prison, relying heavily on Israel for resources.
Considering recent announcements, it seems Israel has lost patience. The Israeli strategy appears simple: destroy everything. The move is reminiscent of the Nazi policies against Jews during World War II, only this time, it’s the Israelis against the Arabs.
Secretary of State Blinken’s emergency visit to Israel: Likely to douse the flames. Blinken’s visit might look like a show of support for Israel, but it’s more likely meant to pacify them.
Arab consensus: China meets with 18 Arab League representatives. With Israel sparking fires everywhere, the potential formation of an Arab consensus against them might make the U.S. nervous.
The situation in the Middle East is complex. After the U.S. cut off Russia’s gas supply to Europe, a significant portion of Europe’s gas now comes from the Middle East, especially Qatar. With Qatar threatening to cut off the world’s natural gas supply if Israel doesn’t halt its bombings, Europe, which heavily relies on this supply, is understandably alarmed.
U.S. is preparing to abandon Ukraine: Focusing entirely on the Middle East. Given the choice between Ukraine and Israel, the U.S. can only pick one. Recent announcements from the White House indicate that U.S. aid to Ukraine is nearing its end. The U.S. will likely withdraw support to focus on the escalating Middle East situation.
The U.S. fears a unified Middle Eastern opposition. While the U.S. has more power than any individual Middle Eastern country, a combined opposition would present significant challenges. With Israel instigating the Arab world and the potential formation of an Arab coalition against Israel, the U.S. is in a tight spot.
U.S. has always been on thin ice in the Middle East, trying to balance relationships with both Israel and Arab nations. While the U.S. has successfully played this balancing act from the 1980s until 2022, the dynamic seems to have shifted in 2023.
The state of Taiwan is anxious, observing how the U.S. abandons its allies one after another. Taiwan, considered by some as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, can be traded if the price is right. The underlying implication is that if the cost becomes too high, it will surely be abandoned.
Source: Xingchen
