Recently, an air battle in the India-Pakistan conflict took the world by surprise, causing a surge of excitement among military enthusiasts in China. However, upon closer examination, much of the hype and the lack of basic military knowledge revealed that few claims are truly credible. Additionally, some of the high-profile military commentary from Taiwan’s experts in the media has been met with disappointment.
In response, retired Taiwanese Navy Vice Admiral Lan Ningli shared a post on Facebook today (10th), which caught the attention of former Veterans Affairs Council Minister Feng Shikuan, who commented: “The analysis is superb! I’ll forward it to my Air Force friends for study and application. Thank you, Brother Lan.”
The post states that this is not a typical air combat victory or defeat. The Rafale jet, one of India’s most advanced weapons in recent years, is theoretically extremely difficult to lock on and shoot down. However, in this case, it was hit by a PL-15 missile with almost no evasive maneuvers.
The Rafale’s Spectra integrated electronic warfare system, hailed by France’s Dassault company as “Europe’s most advanced air combat self-defense system,” can provide early warning as soon as an enemy radar locks on, and automatically deploy countermeasures, such as jamming pods or flares. In NATO exercises, the Spectra system has successfully interfered with U.S. radar systems, even preventing F-22 stealth jets from being locked on.
The issue may not lie in the technical flaws of the Spectra system, but rather in the tactics used by the Pakistan Air Force, which exceeded the system’s response capabilities. Faced with the PL-15 missile, Spectra might not have failed to counteract, but simply couldn’t react in time. The PL-15 missile is not a single surprise attack but part of a complete “early warning + data link + guidance integration” operational network.
The Spectra system didn’t face just one missile, but a dynamic, hundred-kilometer wide ambush network. Another critical factor is that Spectra’s main advantage lies in being able to automatically deploy countermeasures when the electromagnetic situation and threat direction are known. However, the conflict from the outset was asymmetrical, with Pakistan controlling the information battlefield. Therefore, it wasn’t the failure of the Spectra system’s technology, but rather its neutralization by the Chinese system’s integrated suppression.
According to Pakistani sources, the Rafale was shot down by a PL-15 missile launched from a J-10C fighter, indicating that the J-10C not only took on the search and target guidance missions but also served as the core firepower platform in the entire strike chain.
More crucially, this was not merely an air-to-air engagement, but a joint air-ground operation with highly controlled timing in the battlefield ambush. The Spectra system didn’t fail—it was simply unable to respond. This is not only a demonstration of Pakistan’s air power but also a trial run of China’s “Chinese-style offensive air combat system.” The coordination between the PL-15 missile, the J-10C fighter, and the early warning systems is showcasing a combat logic distinct from the Western “single-platform performance-dominant” approach.
Lan Ningli pointed out that people in Taiwan who understand this situation will undoubtedly be worried. Of course, Sun Tzu said, “Victory is never repeated,” and such a scenario may not occur again, but we can’t just brush it off with a casual “Don’t worry, everything is fine!” After all, the J-10CE is not the main fighter of the PLA Air Force. What would happen if it were replaced by J-16, J-20, or J-35 fighters, carrying PL-17 missiles?
Lan Ningli further emphasized that if the PLA operates with the same network-centric architecture, implementing air early warning, integrated ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), electronic warfare, and joint land-air operations, how could the Taiwanese military respond? What’s even more concerning is that, up to today, the PLA has made no official statement about the incident. This unprecedented silence has left many “cold-hearted” who understand the situation. (Zhongtian)
